Teams › CAA · Compare UNC Wilmington with another team
UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington returns 67% of last season's minutes and rates #121 on offense and #83 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -2.3 to +12.5.
Why we have them here
UNC Wilmington's preseason projection of +5.1 (No. 101 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.6, about the +2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 94 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.9, about its neighbours' +0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.2. It returns 67% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (47%). The projection leans most on Patrick Wessler (+5.2), William Kermoury (+2.0) and Gavin Walsh (+1.7); the newcomer who matters most is William Kermoury, a transfer from Northeastern, at +2.0. Its 80% range, -2.3 to +12.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 54% · Transfer 29% · Other newcomer 17%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | Patrick Wessler | F | 7-1 | 3 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 28 | +7.5 | +5.2 |
| 497 | William Kermoury | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Northeastern | 25 | +3.2 | +2.0 |
| 601 | Gavin Walsh | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 24 | +2.7 | +1.7 |
| 1409 | Xavier Brown | G | 6-2 | 4 | Transfer | South Florida | 15 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1565 | Jahnathan Lamothe | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 17 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 2559 | CJ Luster II | F | 6-3 | 2 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.1 | -0.2 | |
| 2567 | Makel Smith | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 9 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| 2773 | Treyvon Maddox | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.3 | -0.3 | |
| 2873 | Grady Whitt | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 10 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 3220 | Matija Prodanovic | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3220 | Adam Tokpah | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3949 | JoJo Fullwood | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 8 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| 4085 | Spencer Elliott | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Charlotte | 18 | -1.8 | -0.8 |
| 4891 | Makoi Mabor Makoi | F | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | UNC Wilmington | 12 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  East Carolina #182 | -1.2 | 46% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Kent State #133 | +7.4 | 72% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Louisiana #294 | +12.1 | 84% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Long Island University #210 | -1.0 | 47% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  Norfolk State #300 | +1.6 | 55% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | +6.8 | 71% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Princeton #164 | +8.0 | 74% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Liberty #150 | +7.4 | 73% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Marshall #247 | +0.2 | 51% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | +8.5 | 76% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Georgia Southern #298 | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Radford #241 | +11.3 | 82% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Campbell #224 | conf | +7.4 | 73% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Northeastern #296 | conf | +10.1 | 79% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  North Carolina A&T #285 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Elon #198 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Towson #193 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  William & Mary #168 | conf | +5.9 | 68% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Monmouth #216 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Hofstra #124 | conf | -1.1 | 47% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  Charleston #141 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Campbell #224 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | William & Mary #168 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Hampton #288 | conf | +9.3 | 78% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Stony Brook #283 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at |  Drexel #254 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Towson #193 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | North Carolina A&T #285 | conf | +9.5 | 78% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Charleston #141 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Elon #198 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
Projected margin is from UNC Wilmington's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.