Roster Math

Teams › CAA · Compare Elon with another team

Elon

Elon returns 65% of last season's minutes and rates #164 on offense and #260 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.0 to +5.5.

-1.7
Rating · #198 of 365
+0.3
Offense · #164
-2.0
Defense · #260
-9.0 to +5.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-16
Projected record · 8 to 19 wins
9-9
Projected in CAA · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Elon's preseason projection of -1.7 (No. 198 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.7, about the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 235 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.1. It returns 65% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (67%). The projection leans most on Chandler Cuthrell (+3.2), Bryson Cokley (+0.2) and Cam Thrower (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Cam Thrower, a transfer from Pennsylvania, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -9.0 to +5.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 56% · Transfer 30% · Other newcomer 9%

Chandler Cuthrell+3.2
Bryson Cokley+0.2
Cam Thrower-0.3
Hunter Harding-0.3
Trey O'Neil-0.4
Alex Brabec-0.4
Alex Olander-0.4
Savion Taylor-0.5
Iker Garmendia-0.6
Josh Dalton-0.6
Randall Pettus II-0.7
Ned Hull-0.8
Isaiah Mbeng-1.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
219Chandler CuthrellF6-83ReturningElon26+4.9+3.2
1398Bryson CokleyG6-62ReturningElon23+0.3+0.2
2455Cam ThrowerG6-34TransferPennsylvania18-0.7-0.3
2998Hunter HardingC7-13TransferIndiana State9-1.4-0.3
3266Trey O'NeilF6-12Other newcomer9-1.7-0.4
3330Alex BrabecF6-20Other newcomer9-1.7-0.4
3499Randall Pettus IIG6-33ReturningElon23-1.2-0.7
3766Alex OlanderF6-41ReturningElon6-2.5-0.4
3941Josh DaltonF6-101TransferLoyola Marymount14-1.9-0.6
3995Savion TaylorG6-41ReturningElon7-2.6-0.5
4104Ned HullG6-33ReturningElon17-1.8-0.8
4201Iker GarmendiaF6-91ReturningElon8-2.8-0.6
4788Isaiah MbengG6-12TransferEast Carolina19-2.6-1.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atColumbia #169-6.630%
Fri Nov 06vsUNC Greensboro #246+6.470%
Tue Nov 10atGeorge Washington #119-9.622%
Fri Nov 13vsChattanooga #226+5.768%
Wed Nov 18atSouth Carolina #98-11.318%
Sat Nov 21vsMorehead State #265+6.971%
Tue Nov 24atFurman #110-9.123%
Sat Nov 28atNC State #36-17.38%
Thu Dec 03vsJames Madison #147+3.060%
Sat Dec 12atRichmond #136-8.225%
Wed Dec 16vsLongwood #195+5.066%
Tue Dec 22atRadford #241-4.237%
Thu Dec 31vsNorth Carolina A&T #285conf+4.965%
Sat Jan 02atWilliam & Mary #168conf-4.337%
Thu Jan 07atCampbell #224conf-2.243%
Sat Jan 09vsUNC Wilmington #101conf-2.741%
Thu Jan 14vsHofstra #124conf-1.146%
Sat Jan 16vsStony Brook #283conf+4.765%
Thu Jan 21atHampton #288conf-0.349%
Sat Jan 23atCharleston #141conf-4.336%
Thu Jan 28vsNortheastern #296conf+5.467%
Sat Jan 30vsMonmouth #216conf+2.357%
Thu Feb 04atStony Brook #283conf+0.251%
Thu Feb 11atNorth Carolina A&T #285conf+0.953%
Sat Feb 13vsHampton #288conf+4.865%
Thu Feb 18atTowson #193conf-3.240%
Sat Feb 20atDrexel #254conf-1.246%
Thu Feb 25vsCampbell #224conf+2.758%
Sat Feb 27vsWilliam & Mary #168conf+0.953%
Tue Mar 02atUNC Wilmington #101conf-6.630%

Projected margin is from Elon's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.