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East Carolina
East Carolina returns 43% of last season's minutes and rates #228 on offense and #139 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.1 to +6.6.
Why we have them here
East Carolina's preseason projection of -0.7 (No. 182 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.1, about the -0.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 315 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.9, less than its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.9. It returns 43% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Kaden Cooper (+2.6), Brycen Blaine (+2.1) and Cian Medley (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Kaden Cooper, a transfer from Louisiana Tech, at +2.6. Its 80% range, -8.1 to +6.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 32% · Transfer 54% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 304 | Kaden Cooper | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Louisiana Tech | 24 | +4.4 | +2.6 |
| 464 | Brycen Blaine | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Charleston Southern | 26 | +3.3 | +2.1 |
| 1226 | Cian Medley | G | 5-11 | 3 | Transfer | Kent State | 27 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | Kaseem Watson | F | 6-9 | 4 | Transfer | UTEP | 25 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2047 | Dreylan Creasy | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2956 | Demitri Gardner | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | East Carolina | 21 | -0.9 | -0.5 |
| 3188 | Luke Davis | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | East Carolina | 11 | -1.5 | -0.4 |
| 3407 | Jake Baker | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.1 | -0.3 | |
| 3647 | Daithi Quinn | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3956 | Grant Smith | F | 6-7 | 2 | Other newcomer | 8 | -2.5 | -0.5 | |
| 3956 | Ladontae Felton | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | East Carolina | 4 | -3.6 | -0.3 |
| 3958 | Trevor Best | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Arizona State | 5 | -3.0 | -0.4 |
| 4322 | Jayshayne Woodard | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | East Carolina | 10 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| 4650 | Eli DeLaurier | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | East Carolina | 13 | -2.9 | -0.9 |
| 4711 | Paddy D'Arcy | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | East Carolina | 6 | -4.4 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  South Carolina Upstate #268 | +8.4 | 75% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  UNC Wilmington #101 | +1.2 | 54% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  North Carolina A&T #285 | +9.0 | 77% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Delaware State #363 | +16.3 | 91% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Utah Valley #112 | -3.1 | 40% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Richmond #136 | +3.5 | 61% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Radford #241 | +7.6 | 73% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | +9.6 | 78% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  App State #229 | -4.1 | 37% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Campbell #224 | +6.8 | 71% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Memphis #100 | conf | -7.5 | 27% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  UAB #158 | conf | -3.0 | 41% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Tulane #250 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  UTSA #284 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Tulsa #82 | conf | -8.9 | 24% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at |  Wichita State #62 | conf | -10.0 | 21% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | UAB #158 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sun Jan 31 | vs |  Charlotte #131 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at |  Rice #262 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sun Feb 07 | at |  Temple #149 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  South Florida #83 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Rice #262 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Tulane #250 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | UTSA #284 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Temple #149 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  North Texas #135 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Sun Mar 07 | at | Charlotte #131 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
Projected margin is from East Carolina's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.