Roster Math

Teams › CAA · Compare Hofstra with another team

Hofstra

Hofstra returns 50% of last season's minutes and rates #167 on offense and #96 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.7 to +10.1.

+2.8
Rating · #124 of 365
+0.1
Offense · #167
+2.7
Defense · #96
-4.7 to +10.1
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
17-13
Projected record · 12 to 22 wins
11-7
Projected in CAA · 7 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Hofstra's preseason projection of +2.8 (No. 124 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.5, less than the +1.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 59 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.8, more than its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.2. It returns 50% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (59%). The projection leans most on Deywilk Tavarez (+1.3), Biggie Patterson (+1.0) and Jaeden Roberts (+1.0); the newcomer who matters most is Deywilk Tavarez, a transfer from Loyola Chicago, at +1.3. Its 80% range, -4.7 to +10.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 40% · Transfer 41% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 13%

Deywilk Tavarez+1.3
Biggie Patterson+1.0
Jaeden Roberts+1.0
Carlos Lopez-0.1
Trey Boyd III-0.1
Brandon Morgan-0.2
Tanner Thomas-0.2
Imanuel Zorgvol-0.2
Alex Tsynkevich-0.3
Xavier Blake-0.4
Spence Wewe-0.4
Joshua DeCady-0.5
A.J. Wills-0.6
Justin Moore-1.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
751Deywilk TavarezG6-23TransferLoyola Chicago24+2.1+1.3
758Jaeden RobertsG6-31ReturningHofstra14+2.7+1.0
860Biggie PattersonG6-72ReturningHofstra22+1.9+1.0
1927Carlos LopezF6-13Other newcomer4-0.6-0.1
2065Imanuel ZorgvolC7-04TransferYoungstown State17-0.4-0.2
2199Trey Boyd IIIF6-40Other newcomer7-0.8-0.1
2222Brandon MorganF6-42Other newcomer8-0.8-0.2
2301Tanner ThomasF6-65Other newcomer7-0.9-0.2
2586Alex TsynkevichC6-103ReturningHofstra9-1.1-0.3
2927Spence WeweF7-02TransferQuinnipiac18-1.0-0.4
3030Xavier BlakeG6-40FreshmanHigh school11-1.3-0.4
3082Joshua DeCadyF6-82ReturningHofstra22-1.0-0.5
3793A.J. WillsG6-03ReturningHofstra13-1.8-0.6
4909Justin MooreG6-34TransferLoyola Chicago23-2.7-1.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Thu Nov 05atPrinceton #164-3.439%
Tue Nov 10atArizona State #52-12.116%
Fri Nov 13vsIona #282+11.783%
Tue Nov 17NMurray State #117-0.349%
Fri Nov 27vsColgate #197+8.676%
Sat Nov 28vsMerrimack #176+7.473%
Sun Nov 29vsVermont #202+8.375%
Tue Dec 01atSaint Mary's #60-10.819%
Sat Dec 05atLSU #39-12.815%
Tue Dec 08atColumbia #169-3.439%
Sat Dec 12atQuinnipiac #200-1.944%
Mon Dec 21vsBucknell #313+12.685%
Sat Jan 02vsStony Brook #283conf+8.375%
Thu Jan 07atTowson #193conf-0.249%
Sat Jan 09vsWilliam & Mary #168conf+4.965%
Thu Jan 14atElon #198conf+1.154%
Sat Jan 16atHampton #288conf+2.759%
Mon Jan 18vsDrexel #254conf+6.971%
Thu Jan 21vsNortheastern #296conf+9.177%
Sat Jan 23vsUNC Wilmington #101conf+1.153%
Thu Jan 28atCampbell #224conf+1.053%
Sat Jan 30atCharleston #141conf-1.246%
Thu Feb 04vsNorth Carolina A&T #285conf+8.576%
Sat Feb 06vsTowson #193conf+5.266%
Thu Feb 11atNortheastern #296conf+4.765%
Sat Feb 13atMonmouth #216conf+0.853%
Thu Feb 18vsCharleston #141conf+3.561%
Sat Feb 20atStony Brook #283conf+3.260%
Sat Feb 27atDrexel #254conf+1.756%
Tue Mar 02vsMonmouth #216conf+6.069%

Projected margin is from Hofstra's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.