2026-27 men's college basketball
College basketball ratings, from the roster up
Every Division I team rated from its roster, player by player: who returns, who transferred in, who is a freshman, and what each is projected to give. The preseason number is frozen before the first game and scored in March; in season, results take over.
Top 25
Full ratings →| # | Team | Rating | Off | Def | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Florida | +30.9 | +17.7 | +13.2 | +23.4 to +38.4 |
| 2 |  Duke | +26.6 | +14.2 | +12.4 | +19.1 to +34.0 |
| 3 |  Arizona | +24.1 | +11.6 | +12.5 | +16.5 to +31.6 |
| 4 |  UConn | +23.5 | +13.2 | +10.3 | +16.0 to +30.9 |
| 5 |  Illinois | +23.2 | +14.7 | +8.5 | +15.8 to +30.6 |
| 6 |  Michigan State | +22.6 | +11.8 | +10.8 | +15.4 to +29.9 |
| 7 |  Louisville | +22.2 | +12.1 | +10.2 | +14.9 to +29.5 |
| 8 |  Houston | +22.2 | +9.8 | +12.4 | +14.8 to +29.5 |
| 9 |  Iowa State | +21.9 | +11.9 | +9.9 | +14.5 to +29.1 |
| 10 |  Kansas | +21.7 | +10.8 | +10.9 | +14.2 to +29.1 |
| 11 |  Michigan | +20.7 | +10.2 | +10.5 | +13.1 to +28.1 |
| 12 |  Nebraska | +20.7 | +10.6 | +10.0 | +13.4 to +28.0 |
| 13 |  Tennessee | +20.4 | +11.0 | +9.4 | +13.1 to +27.6 |
| 14 |  Gonzaga | +20.1 | +10.4 | +9.7 | +12.6 to +27.6 |
| 15 |  Texas Tech | +19.9 | +12.7 | +7.2 | +12.5 to +27.3 |
| 16 |  Auburn | +19.7 | +13.2 | +6.6 | +12.4 to +27.1 |
| 17 |  Alabama | +19.3 | +13.0 | +6.3 | +12.0 to +26.7 |
| 18 |  Miami | +18.8 | +11.8 | +7.0 | +11.6 to +26.0 |
| 19 |  Virginia | +18.7 | +10.5 | +8.1 | +11.4 to +25.9 |
| 20 |  Texas | +18.5 | +11.3 | +7.1 | +11.1 to +25.9 |
| 21 |  St. John's | +18.4 | +8.6 | +9.7 | +11.2 to +25.5 |
| 22 |  Kentucky | +18.2 | +11.5 | +6.7 | +10.8 to +25.6 |
| 23 |  BYU | +18.1 | +11.5 | +6.6 | +10.7 to +25.5 |
| 24 |  Villanova | +17.5 | +11.3 | +6.3 | +10.0 to +24.8 |
| 25 |  Arkansas | +17.5 | +11.5 | +6.0 | +9.9 to +25.1 |
A team's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I team on a neutral floor: +30 is elite, 0 is average, and the gap between two teams is the margin the model expects on a neutral floor. Offense and defense are the two halves, each against the average, and the rating is their sum.
Team ratings
All 365 teams: rating, offense, defense, the 80% range, the chance of finishing in the top 25, and every team's page with its roster and schedule.
Player ratings
The top 300 of 5,250 players by projected contribution: rating, minutes, where he came from.
Betting
The 2027 paper season: a fixed rule, every pick recorded against the market before tip-off, settled every Monday, and the closing-line record that decides whether the model earns real stakes.
Philosophy
Why team results are the only ground truth, why the player model has to add up to them, and why the record of rejected ideas is kept beside the adopted ones.