Roster Math

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Kent State

Kent State returns 49% of last season's minutes and rates #156 on offense and #119 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.3 to +9.6.

+2.2
Rating · #133 of 365
+0.5
Offense · #156
+1.6
Defense · #119
-5.3 to +9.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-13
Projected record · 9 to 21 wins
12-10
Projected in MAC · 7 to 17 wins

Why we have them here

Kent State's preseason projection of +2.2 (No. 133 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.6, about the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 152 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.4, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.8. It returns 49% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (53%). The projection leans most on Quinn Woidke (+2.3), Christian Henry (+2.0) and Godslove Nwabude (+0.8); the newcomer who matters most is Christian Henry, a transfer from Fordham, at +2.0. Its 80% range, -5.3 to +9.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 46% · Transfer 43% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 5%

Quinn Woidke+2.3
Christian Henry+2.0
Godslove Nwabude+0.8
Chansey Willis Jr.+0.3
Dhani Miller+0.0
Jamal Sumlin-0.2
Dorian Jones-0.2
Drew Huffman-0.2
Dylan Lakatos-0.2
Landon Vanderwarker-0.3
Jaymen Townsend-0.3
Dezmon Briscoe-0.3
Brenden Moss-0.4
Cameron Williams-0.5
Magnus Entenmann-0.6
Rob Whaley Jr.-1.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
356Quinn WoidkeG6-01ReturningKent State21+4.3+2.3
504Christian HenryG6-32TransferFordham27+3.0+2.0
964Godslove NwabudeF6-92TransferEastern Michigan19+1.7+0.8
1311Chansey Willis Jr.G6-22TransferMinnesota19+0.6+0.3
1582Dhani MillerG6-20FreshmanHigh school10+0.1+0.0
2407Jamal SumlinF6-12Other newcomer5-1.3-0.2
2556Dorian JonesF6-40Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2654Dylan LakatosG5-111ReturningKent State5-1.5-0.2
2684Drew HuffmanF6-61ReturningKent State5-1.6-0.2
2944Dezmon BriscoeF6-81ReturningKent State9-1.4-0.3
2975Landon VanderwarkerF6-81ReturningKent State6-1.7-0.3
3049Cameron WilliamsF6-81TransferPortland22-1.0-0.5
3084Jaymen TownsendF6-51ReturningKent State8-1.6-0.3
3861Brenden MossG6-43ReturningKent State6-2.8-0.4
4017Magnus EntenmannF6-93ReturningKent State11-2.1-0.6
4449Rob Whaley Jr.F6-73ReturningKent State20-2.1-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atLouisiana Tech #269-0.449%
Wed Nov 11atUNC Wilmington #101-7.428%
Mon Nov 16vsEastern Kentucky #264+10.179%
Sat Nov 21atCleveland State #207-3.140%
Tue Nov 24NWyoming #121-0.548%
Wed Dec 02vsBowling Green #266conf+7.071%
Sat Dec 05atToledo #173conf-0.249%
Wed Dec 09atCentral Michigan #259conf+1.655%
Sat Dec 12vsMassachusetts #178conf+3.962%
Sun Dec 20NOmaha #274+5.366%
Sat Jan 02vsBuffalo #209conf+4.765%
Tue Jan 05atBall State #153conf-1.146%
Sat Jan 09atWestern Michigan #151conf-1.346%
Tue Jan 12vsOhio #232conf+5.768%
Sat Jan 16vsMiami (OH) #96conf-1.146%
Tue Jan 19atEastern Michigan #244conf+2.157%
Sat Jan 23atBowling Green #266conf+2.458%
Tue Jan 26vsBall State #153conf+2.759%
Sat Jan 30vsCentral Michigan #259conf+6.570%
Tue Feb 02atMiami (OH) #96conf-6.131%
Tue Feb 09atMassachusetts #178conf-0.748%
Sat Feb 13vsAkron #73conf-3.240%
Tue Feb 16vsWestern Michigan #151conf+2.758%
Sat Feb 20atBuffalo #209conf+2.458%
Tue Feb 23atOhio #232conf+0.552%
Sat Feb 27vsToledo #173conf+3.561%
Tue Mar 02vsEastern Michigan #244conf+5.868%
Fri Mar 05atAkron #73conf-8.226%

Projected margin is from Kent State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.