Teams › MVC · Compare Valparaiso with another team
Valparaiso
Valparaiso returns 90% of last season's minutes and rates #160 on offense and #216 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.6 to +7.1.
Why we have them here
Valparaiso's preseason projection of -0.3 (No. 172 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.8, more than the -0.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 184 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 90% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Rakim Chaney (+2.4), JT Pettigrew (+2.4) and Brody Whitaker (+2.1); the newcomer who matters most is Rajan Roberts, a freshman, recruit No. 269, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -7.6 to +7.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 81% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 381 | Rakim Chaney | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 26 | +3.8 | +2.4 |
| 385 | JT Pettigrew | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 26 | +3.8 | +2.4 |
| 460 | Brody Whitaker | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 26 | +3.4 | +2.1 |
| 1172 | Sader Servilus | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 14 | +1.1 | +0.4 |
| 1746 | Justus McNair | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Valparaiso | 18 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2177 | Carter Hopoi | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 18 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| 2773 | Camden Webster | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 7 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 2891 | Rajan Roberts | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 3415 | Nick Lombardi | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Valparaiso | 6 | -2.1 | -0.3 |
| 3534 | Jayden Watson | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3558 | Kobe Walker | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3720 | Justin Curry | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| 4188 | Mark Brown Jr. | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 14 | -2.1 | -0.7 |
| 4484 | Kyonte Thomas | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Valparaiso | 7 | -3.5 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Western Illinois #362 | +16.0 | 90% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Purdue #38 | -15.1 | 11% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  South Dakota State #213 | -4.1 | 37% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Troy #155 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Southern Miss #214 | +1.3 | 54% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Toledo #173 | +5.4 | 67% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  UIC #120 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  UNC Wilmington #101 | -8.5 | 24% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +11.5 | 83% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | +7.3 | 73% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Evansville #317 | conf | +7.5 | 73% |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Bradley #194 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -6.9 | 28% |
| Fri Jan 08 | vs | UIC #120 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Drake #104 | conf | -5.3 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Illinois State #108 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs | Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Belmont #94 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at | Southern Illinois #206 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Indiana State #116 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Murray State #117 | conf | -4.6 | 35% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Drake #104 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | Illinois State #108 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Indiana State #116 | conf | -5.6 | 33% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | Evansville #317 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Bradley #194 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Belmont #94 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Murray State #117 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Valparaiso's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.