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NC State
NC State returns 25% of last season's minutes and rates #26 on offense and #82 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +6.5 to +21.0.
Why we have them here
NC State's preseason projection of +13.8 (No. 36 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +10.2, more than the +8.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 35 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.8, about its neighbours' +2.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.7. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 25% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Preston Edmead (+5.2), Paul McNeil Jr. (+5.2) and Kyle Evans (+3.7); the newcomer who matters most is Preston Edmead, a transfer from Hofstra, at +5.2. Its 80% range, +6.5 to +21.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 24% · Transfer 67% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Paul McNeil Jr. | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | NC State | 24 | +8.6 | +5.2 |
| 54 | Preston Edmead | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | Hofstra | 28 | +7.4 | +5.2 |
| 123 | Kyle Evans | F | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | UC Irvine | 22 | +6.7 | +3.7 |
| 139 | Ven-Allen Lubin | F | 6-9 | 4 | Returning | NC State | 24 | +6.2 | +3.7 |
| 667 | Christian Hammond | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Santa Clara | 21 | +2.7 | +1.4 |
| 674 | RJ Keene II | G | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Boise State | 15 | +3.1 | +1.2 |
| 911 | Robert Jurkovic | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | +2.7 | +0.6 | |
| 1395 | Darius Adams | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Maryland | 16 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1682 | Eemeli Yalaho | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Washington State | 18 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1915 | Zymicah Wilkins | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.8 | +0.0 | |
| 1961 | Shah Hall | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 2073 | Jacari Brim | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | App State | 5 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| 2174 | Kingston Whitty | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| 4770 | Comeh Emuobor | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | New Hampshire | 9 | -3.7 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Campbell #224 | +18.5 | 93% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  East Tennessee State #171 | +16.0 | 90% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Presbyterian #243 | +18.1 | 93% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Troy #155 | +15.9 | 90% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | N |  Murray State #117 | +7.7 | 73% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Norfolk State #300 | +20.9 | 95% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Elon #198 | +17.3 | 92% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  South Carolina #98 | +12.2 | 84% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | N |  Tennessee #13 | -4.6 | 35% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  UNC Greensboro #246 | +18.9 | 94% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | N |  North Carolina #54 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | -3.0 | 41% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Alabama A&M #343 | +22.5 | 97% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Miami #18 | conf | -6.7 | 29% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Clemson #46 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at | North Carolina #54 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  SMU #53 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | +7.3 | 72% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  California #115 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Stanford #69 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  Florida State #90 | conf | +8.5 | 75% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Wake Forest #76 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Boston College #114 | conf | +10.5 | 80% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | California #115 | conf | +10.7 | 81% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Duke #2 | conf | -12.3 | 16% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  Louisville #7 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at |  Virginia #19 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
Projected margin is from NC State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.