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South Carolina
South Carolina returns 12% of last season's minutes and rates #111 on offense and #95 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -2.0 to +12.8.
Why we have them here
South Carolina's preseason projection of +5.4 (No. 98 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.8, more than the +3.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 140 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.4, about its neighbours' +0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.0. It returns 12% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (47%). The projection leans most on Kory Mincy (+3.5), Aleksas Bieliauskas (+1.6) and Shane Blakeney (+1.1); the newcomer who matters most is Kory Mincy, a transfer from George Mason, at +3.5. Its 80% range, -2.0 to +12.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 12% · Transfer 68% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 14%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206 | Kory Mincy | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | George Mason | 30 | +4.7 | +3.5 |
| 545 | Aleksas Bieliauskas | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Wisconsin | 20 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| 872 | Camden Heide | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Texas | 23 | +1.8 | +1.0 |
| 897 | Shane Blakeney | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Drexel | 29 | +1.5 | +1.1 |
| 941 | Jakub Necas | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Duquesne | 23 | +1.6 | +0.9 |
| 1222 | Davion Hannah | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Alabama | 12 | +1.0 | +0.3 |
| 1406 | Hayden Assemian | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | South Carolina | 11 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1478 | Marcus Johnson | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 2326 | Grant Polk | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | South Carolina | 13 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2512 | Ford Wilder | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.4 | -0.2 | |
| 2826 | Mathias Alessanco | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2900 | Hugo Lopez | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2988 | Nasir Hines | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.8 | -0.3 | |
| 3071 | Juan Fernandez | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.9 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Stetson #311 | +15.3 | 89% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | vs |  Southeast Missouri State #219 | +12.0 | 83% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Saint Peter's #289 | +14.1 | 87% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Gardner-Webb #361 | +20.5 | 95% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Elon #198 | +11.3 | 82% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  USC #35 | -6.3 | 31% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Arizona State #52 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  NC State #36 | -12.2 | 16% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  UT Martin #271 | +13.2 | 86% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Youngstown State #215 | +11.6 | 83% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Clemson #46 | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Maryland #64 | -9.3 | 23% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +18.5 | 93% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  South Carolina State #360 | +20.1 | 95% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  LSU #39 | conf | -8.1 | 25% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -10.6 | 19% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Missouri #43 | conf | -8.0 | 26% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Texas #20 | conf | -5.4 | 33% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | -10.1 | 21% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  Florida #1 | conf | -21.5 | 4% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Georgia #32 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -12.8 | 15% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | -6.3 | 30% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at |  Tennessee #13 | conf | -13.9 | 13% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Mississippi State #78 | conf | +1.7 | 55% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Florida #1 | conf | -14.3 | 12% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Georgia #32 | conf | -10.5 | 20% |
Projected margin is from South Carolina's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.