Roster Math

Teams › Sun Belt · Compare James Madison with another team

James Madison

James Madison returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #107 on offense and #250 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.1 to +8.2.

+1.2
Rating · #147 of 365
+2.9
Offense · #107
-1.7
Defense · #250
-6.1 to +8.2
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
18-11
Projected record · 12 to 23 wins
11-6
Projected in Sun Belt · 7 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

James Madison's preseason projection of +1.2 (No. 147 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.3, about the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 216 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.8. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on Cliff Davis (+1.5), Preston Fowler (+0.7) and Adrian Myers (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Adrian Myers, a transfer from San José State, at +0.5. Its 80% range, -6.1 to +8.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 38% · Transfer 55% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 4%

Cliff Davis+1.5
Preston Fowler+0.7
Adrian Myers+0.5
Daniel Johnson+0.4
K.J. Windham+0.3
Garrett Sundra+0.2
Gage Lattimore+0.2
Brandon Lee+0.1
Ashton Meeks+0.0
Gabe Newhof-0.1
Chance Lundy-0.1
Josh Stephen-0.1
Oriekose Egbule-0.1
Cavan Reilly-0.2
Bradley Douglas-0.4
Marley Curtis-0.4
Paul Jones III-0.4
Kose Egbule-0.5
Jacob Hogarth-0.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
639Cliff DavisG6-23ReturningJames Madison21+2.8+1.5
938Preston FowlerF6-81ReturningJames Madison15+1.9+0.7
1147Adrian MyersF6-63TransferSan José State18+1.0+0.5
1154K.J. WindhamG6-32TransferNorthwestern8+1.5+0.3
1178Daniel JohnsonG6-72TransferHampton15+1.0+0.4
1290Garrett SundraF6-112TransferNotre Dame11+0.8+0.2
1326Brandon LeeG6-41TransferIllinois4+1.2+0.1
1415Gage LattimoreG6-21TransferNorth Carolina Central23+0.3+0.2
1813Ashton MeeksG5-100FreshmanHigh school6-0.3+0.0
1858Gabe NewhofF6-91ReturningJames Madison11-0.3-0.1
2312Chance LundyF6-00Other newcomer3-1.5-0.1
2312Josh StephenF6-00Other newcomer3-1.5-0.1
2385Oriekose EgbuleF6-20Other newcomer3-1.6-0.1
2519Cavan ReillyG6-44TransferDelaware9-1.1-0.2
2962Bradley DouglasG6-13ReturningJames Madison16-1.1-0.4
3705Marley CurtisF6-81TransferNorth Dakota8-2.2-0.4
3934Jacob HogarthF6-92TransferGardner-Webb14-1.9-0.6
4021Kose EgbuleG2ReturningJames Madison8-2.6-0.5
4234Paul Jones IIIG6-42ReturningJames Madison5-3.6-0.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsMiami (OH) #96+2.458%
Fri Nov 06atKentucky #22-18.66%
Wed Nov 11atDelaware #325+2.659%
Sun Nov 15vsMercyhurst #239+8.676%
Wed Nov 18atTowson #193-4.236%
Tue Nov 24vsCharleston Southern #276+10.680%
Sun Nov 29vsWilliam & Mary #168+6.971%
Thu Dec 03atElon #198-3.040%
Sun Dec 06vsLongwood #195+7.773%
Wed Dec 09atNorth Carolina A&T #285-0.249%
Wed Dec 16vsGeorgia State #260conf+6.570%
Sat Dec 19atSouthern Miss #214conf-0.249%
Tue Dec 22vsCoppin State #364+18.393%
Thu Dec 31vsArkansas State #134conf+2.157%
Sat Jan 02vsTroy #155conf+3.060%
Thu Jan 07atLouisiana Tech #269-1.147%
Sat Jan 09atLouisiana #294conf+2.959%
Wed Jan 13atGeorgia Southern #298conf+3.260%
Sat Jan 16vsOld Dominion #297conf+8.074%
Thu Jan 21vsMarshall #247conf+6.069%
Sat Jan 23atGeorgia State #260conf+1.254%
Sat Jan 30vsUL Monroe #359conf+13.486%
Wed Feb 03atCoastal Carolina #301conf+3.662%
Wed Feb 10vsApp State #229conf+5.166%
Sat Feb 13atMarshall #247conf+0.652%
Wed Feb 17atOld Dominion #297conf+3.260%
Sat Feb 20vsCoastal Carolina #301conf+8.074%
Tue Feb 23vsGeorgia Southern #298conf+8.175%
Fri Feb 26atApp State #229conf+0.150%

Projected margin is from James Madison's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.