Teams › OVC · Compare Morehead State with another team
Morehead State
Morehead State returns 72% of last season's minutes and rates #191 on offense and #318 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.1 to +2.5.
Why we have them here
Morehead State's preseason projection of -4.7 (No. 265 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.3, about the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 266 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.8, about its neighbours' -0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.9. It returns 72% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on George Marshall (+1.3), Tamaury Releford (+0.8) and Jarvis Wright (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jarvis Wright, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -12.1 to +2.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 57% · Other newcomer 15%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 792 | George Marshall | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Morehead State | 27 | +1.9 | +1.3 |
| 965 | Tamaury Releford | C | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Morehead State | 19 | +1.7 | +0.8 |
| 3280 | Jarvis Wright | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.8 | -0.4 | |
| 3848 | Chase Dawson | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Morehead State | 25 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| 3971 | Kameren Wright | F | 6-6 | 2 | Other newcomer | 11 | -2.1 | -0.6 | |
| 4008 | Vince Dawson III | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Morehead State | 18 | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| 4102 | Jaden Priester | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -2.2 | -0.6 | |
| 4195 | Jace Winkleman | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Morehead State | 8 | -2.8 | -0.6 |
| 5075 | Clayton Parker | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Morehead State | 16 | -3.9 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Western Kentucky #160 | -8.9 | 24% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Louisville #7 | -24.4 | 2% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  IU Indianapolis #279 | +6.7 | 70% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Ohio #232 | -7.3 | 28% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  Elon #198 | -6.9 | 29% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Charleston Southern #276 | +0.3 | 51% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  East Tennessee State #171 | -8.5 | 24% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Bellarmine #305 | +7.0 | 72% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Presbyterian #243 | +4.7 | 65% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  North Alabama #332 | +8.4 | 75% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Tennessee #13 | -23.5 | 3% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  UNC Asheville #245 | -6.2 | 31% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  UT Martin #271 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Eastern Illinois #324 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Lindenwood #258 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Southern Indiana #315 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Tennessee State #154 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Western Illinois #362 | conf | +10.3 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at | Lindenwood #258 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Southern Indiana #315 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Southeast Missouri State #219 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Tennessee State #154 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | SIU Edwardsville #234 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Western Illinois #362 | conf | +6.3 | 70% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | UT Martin #271 | conf | +2.8 | 59% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Southeast Missouri State #219 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Eastern Illinois #324 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Morehead State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.