Teams › American · Compare Tulsa with another team
Tulsa
Tulsa returns 49% of last season's minutes and rates #60 on offense and #114 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.7 to +15.0.
Why we have them here
Tulsa's preseason projection of +7.9 (No. 82 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.2, more than the +4.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 50 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.4, more than its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.1. It returns 49% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on David Green (+3.6), Miles Barnstable (+3.2) and Jeremiah Johnson (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Jeremiah Johnson, a transfer from Campbell, at +1.8. Its 80% range, +0.7 to +15.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 48% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 2% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | David Green | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Tulsa | 20 | +7.1 | +3.6 |
| 198 | Miles Barnstable | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Tulsa | 24 | +5.3 | +3.2 |
| 355 | Jaylen Lawal | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Tulsa | 11 | +6.1 | +1.7 |
| 496 | Jeremiah Johnson | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Campbell | 22 | +3.4 | +1.8 |
| 627 | Tyler Behrend | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Tulsa | 16 | +3.2 | +1.3 |
| 923 | Mike Williams | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Seton Hall | 13 | +2.1 | +0.7 |
| 1009 | Kaleb Banks | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | DePaul | 10 | +2.0 | +0.5 |
| 1132 | Myles Rigsby | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Tulsa | 11 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1467 | Leon Sifferlin | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Tulsa | 4 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| 1562 | KJ Martin Jr. | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Tulsa | 6 | +0.2 | +0.0 |
| 1845 | Carter Benton | F | 6-4 | 2 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.7 | +0.0 | |
| 2082 | Aleksa Dimitrijevic | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2145 | Chris Loofe | F | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Middle Tennessee | 14 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| 2162 | Cal Conroy | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Tulsa | 3 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| 2189 | Macon Emory | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Delaware | 22 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2360 | Brent Moss | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | UTSA | 15 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 2380 | Denton Forsythe | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| 2749 | Doryan Onwuchekwa | C | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Tulsa | 2 | -2.7 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +16.0 | 90% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Northern Illinois #333 | +17.8 | 93% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | +17.5 | 92% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +18.0 | 93% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Western Kentucky #160 | +11.3 | 82% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Mississippi State #78 | +5.9 | 68% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | +5.2 | 66% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Oregon State #93 | +0.9 | 53% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Illinois State #108 | +2.6 | 58% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Central Michigan #259 | +8.6 | 76% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Bowling Green #266 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  IU Indianapolis #279 | +16.5 | 91% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  Missouri State #201 | +1.7 | 55% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  SMU #53 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | +18.1 | 93% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  UT Martin #271 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +21.1 | 96% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Utah State #29 | -5.3 | 33% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Middle Tennessee #127 | +3.6 | 61% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | N |  San Francisco #189 | +6.1 | 69% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  South Florida #83 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  UTSA #284 | conf | +7.9 | 74% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  East Carolina #182 | conf | +8.9 | 76% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at | South Florida #83 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at | Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Wichita State #62 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Temple #149 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at |  North Texas #135 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  UAB #158 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs |  Tulane #250 | conf | +10.9 | 81% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at |  Rice #262 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Sun Feb 14 | vs | North Texas #135 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | UTSA #284 | conf | +12.4 | 84% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at |  Memphis #100 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | UAB #158 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs |  Charlotte #131 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Wichita State #62 | conf | -3.9 | 37% |
Projected margin is from Tulsa's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.