Teams › Pac-12 · Compare Utah State with another team
Utah State
Utah State returns 27% of last season's minutes and rates #33 on offense and #34 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +8.2 to +22.9.
Why we have them here
Utah State's preseason projection of +15.5 (No. 29 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.9, less than the +9.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 26 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.2, about its neighbours' +2.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.5. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 27% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Mason Falslev (+5.9), Dallin Hall (+3.6) and AJ Bates (+2.2); the newcomer who matters most is Dallin Hall, a transfer from Virginia, at +3.6. Its 80% range, +8.2 to +22.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 25% · Transfer 66% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Mason Falslev | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Utah State | 30 | +8.0 | +5.9 |
| 168 | Dallin Hall | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Virginia | 28 | +5.3 | +3.6 |
| 451 | Karson Templin | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Utah State | 20 | +3.9 | +1.9 |
| 473 | AJ Bates | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Louisiana Tech | 28 | +3.1 | +2.2 |
| 895 | Connor Turnbull | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Evansville | 18 | +1.9 | +0.9 |
| 986 | Will Hornseth | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Northern Iowa | 22 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| 1259 | Collin Mulholland | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Chattanooga | 15 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| 1755 | Ace Reiser | G | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1773 | Brayden Boe | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1851 | Kingston Tosi | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1858 | Jordan Boyd | G | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1893 | Jax Allen | G | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 2233 | Sean Felts | C | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -1.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2662 | Bron Roberts | C | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 5055 | Solomon Callaghan | G | 6-2 | 2 | Transfer | Wright State | 20 | -3.3 | -1.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Idaho State #261 | +19.6 | 95% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Omaha #274 | +20.5 | 95% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Utah Tech #275 | +21.0 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  UC San Diego #77 | +11.5 | 83% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Weber State #233 | +20.0 | 95% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  SMU #53 | +2.6 | 58% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  USC #35 | +0.9 | 53% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  New Mexico #50 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Montana #222 | +19.2 | 94% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  BYU #23 | -10.0 | 21% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Winthrop #177 | +18.0 | 93% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Tulsa #82 | +5.3 | 67% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | N |  George Washington #119 | +8.8 | 76% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Pacific #175 | +16.8 | 91% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Boise State #87 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Texas State #183 | conf | +8.1 | 75% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Oregon State #93 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Washington State #162 | conf | +13.9 | 87% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | Boise State #87 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Oregon State #93 | conf | +9.5 | 78% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at |  San Diego State #81 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Fresno State #221 | conf | +10.0 | 79% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  Colorado State #67 | conf | +7.2 | 72% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -6.7 | 30% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | San Diego State #81 | conf | +9.0 | 77% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Memphis #100 | +1.0 | 53% | |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Colorado State #67 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Fresno State #221 | conf | +15.8 | 90% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | Texas State #183 | conf | +14.5 | 88% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Washington State #162 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
Projected margin is from Utah State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.