Teams › Southland · Compare Stephen F. Austin with another team
Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin returns 74% of last season's minutes and rates #197 on offense and #128 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.0 to +7.5.
Why we have them here
Stephen F. Austin's preseason projection of +0.3 (No. 161 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.6, about the +0.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 67 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.6, more than its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 74% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (58%). The projection leans most on Narit Chotikavanic (+3.1), Chrishawn Christmas (+1.0) and Amari Reed (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Amari Reed, a transfer from UT Arlington, at +0.4. Its 80% range, -7.0 to +7.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 70% · Transfer 14% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 209 | Narit Chotikavanic | G | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 23 | +5.3 | +3.1 | |
| 926 | Chrishawn Christmas | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 27 | +1.5 | +1.0 |
| 1124 | Amari Reed | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | UT Arlington | 14 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1659 | Ahamed Mohammed | G | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 17 | +0.0 | +0.0 | |
| 2057 | Eltramon Smith Jr. | F | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 11 | -0.5 | -0.1 | |
| 2089 | Tichyque Musaka | F | 6-11 | 3 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 9 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2110 | Gediminas Alisas | F | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 17 | -0.5 | -0.2 | |
| 2157 | Marcus Scurry | G | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 11 | -0.6 | -0.2 | |
| 2280 | Ashton Simmons | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | TCU | 8 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2282 | Devon Pearson | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.0 | -0.2 | ||
| 2282 | Yohan Gutierrez | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.0 | -0.2 | ||
| 2531 | Martavious Russell | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.2 | -0.2 | ||
| 2757 | Bryceson Melvin | G | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 9 | -1.3 | -0.3 | |
| 2857 | Harris Dar | G | 1 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 8 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 2957 | Manu Manciel | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 4287 | Easton Hupp | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Charleston Southern | 7 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 4385 | Christian Green | G | 2 | Returning | Stephen F. Austin | 10 | -2.9 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Abilene Christian #192 | -4.2 | 37% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Rice #262 | +8.1 | 75% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Indiana State #116 | -2.0 | 43% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Tulsa #82 | -5.2 | 34% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  SMU #53 | -14.0 | 13% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | conf | +7.8 | 74% |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  UT Arlington #211 | +6.4 | 70% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Louisiana Tech #269 | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Northwestern State #277 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  McNeese #80 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Houston Christian #273 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Mon Jan 11 | at |  Incarnate Word #308 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  New Orleans #303 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Nicholls #267 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | McNeese #80 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | SE Louisiana #286 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Lamar #238 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Mon Feb 01 | at | Northwestern State #277 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Lamar #238 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at | East Texas A&M #319 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Nicholls #267 | conf | +2.0 | 56% |
| Mon Feb 22 | at | New Orleans #303 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Houston Christian #273 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | Incarnate Word #308 | conf | +6.8 | 71% |
Projected margin is from Stephen F. Austin's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.