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North Texas
North Texas returns 48% of last season's minutes and rates #193 on offense and #86 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.3 to +9.5.
Why we have them here
North Texas's preseason projection of +2.1 (No. 135 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.8, more than the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 165 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.2, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.2. It returns 48% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (51%). The projection leans most on Je'Shawn Stevenson (+5.7), Cash Chavis (+1.3) and Reece Robinson (+1.3); the newcomer who matters most is Cash Chavis, a transfer from UT Arlington, at +1.3. Its 80% range, -5.3 to +9.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 48% · Transfer 25% · Freshman 15%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | Je'Shawn Stevenson | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | North Texas | 30 | +7.7 | +5.7 |
| 707 | Reece Robinson | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | North Texas | 21 | +2.4 | +1.3 |
| 739 | Cash Chavis | G | 6-2 | 2 | Transfer | UT Arlington | 25 | +2.1 | +1.3 |
| 1427 | Amar Amkou | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Florida Atlantic | 14 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 2349 | Mitchell Holmes | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | SMU | 10 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| 3209 | TJ Crumble | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.5 | -0.4 |
| 3229 | Aeneas Alexander | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3606 | Marcus Zelee | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| 3766 | Josiah Shackleford | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | North Texas | 13 | -1.8 | -0.6 |
| 4349 | EJ Horton | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | North Texas | 11 | -2.6 | -0.7 |
| 4788 | Cole Franklin | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | North Texas | 20 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  McNeese #80 | +1.1 | 54% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Santa Clara #63 | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | +8.3 | 75% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  App State #229 | -2.1 | 43% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  North Dakota State #225 | +3.3 | 61% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Boise State #87 | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  Drake #104 | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N | Boise State #87 | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | vs |  Bradley #194 | +7.7 | 73% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +24.1 | 97% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | N |  Texas State #183 | +2.0 | 56% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Winthrop #177 | +7.1 | 72% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | +8.3 | 75% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Wichita State #62 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Rice #262 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Tulane #250 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  Charlotte #131 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs | Wichita State #62 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Memphis #100 | conf | -5.3 | 34% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  UTSA #284 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sun Jan 31 | vs |  Tulsa #82 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Temple #149 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at |  UAB #158 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sun Feb 14 | at | Tulsa #82 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Memphis #100 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at |  South Florida #83 | conf | -7.1 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | UTSA #284 | conf | +7.5 | 73% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  East Carolina #182 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sun Mar 07 | vs | Rice #262 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
Projected margin is from North Texas's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.