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Mississippi State
Mississippi State returns 31% of last season's minutes and rates #72 on offense and #90 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.9 to +15.3.
Why we have them here
Mississippi State's preseason projection of +8.1 (No. 78 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +4.2, about the +4.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 157 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.3, less than its neighbours' +1.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.1. It returns 31% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Josh Hubbard (+3.9), Kimani Hamilton (+2.6) and RJ Johnson (+2.5); the newcomer who matters most is Kimani Hamilton, a transfer from UNLV, at +2.6. Its 80% range, +0.9 to +15.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 25% · Transfer 55% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | Josh Hubbard | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Mississippi State | 26 | +6.0 | +3.9 |
| 292 | Kimani Hamilton | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | UNLV | 22 | +4.7 | +2.6 |
| 318 | RJ Johnson | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Kennesaw State | 23 | +4.5 | +2.5 |
| 635 | Tajuan Simpkins | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Seton Hall | 18 | +3.0 | +1.4 |
| 1210 | Ja'Borri McGhee | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Mississippi State | 16 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| 1286 | Tristan Reed | C | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | +1.1 | +0.2 |
| 1555 | ND Okafor | F | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | Washington State | 17 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 1633 | Jalyn Collingwood | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1803 | Willie Burnett III | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2204 | King Grace | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi State | 8 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| 2512 | Cameren Paul | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2562 | Kendyl Sanders | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Utah | 13 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2575 | Trevor Reed | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2670 | TJ Simpkins | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.8 | -0.2 | ||
| 2787 | Tee Bartlett | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.9 | -0.2 | |
| 2857 | Gai Chol | F | 7-0 | 3 | Other newcomer | 4 | -2.0 | -0.2 | |
| 4195 | Thomas Bassong | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Florida State | 11 | -2.3 | -0.7 |
| 4800 | Ashton Magee | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Southern | 5 | -5.0 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Tennessee Tech #280 | +15.4 | 89% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Northwestern State #277 | +14.8 | 89% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +21.4 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | N |  Xavier #57 | -2.1 | 43% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  UCF #70 | -7.2 | 28% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Tulsa #82 | -5.9 | 32% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Wake Forest #76 | -0.1 | 50% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Georgia Tech #140 | +10.8 | 81% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | vs |  Alabama A&M #343 | +18.1 | 93% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Marquette #47 | -10.5 | 20% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +29.9 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  VCU #44 | -3.6 | 39% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  Campbell #224 | +13.8 | 86% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | -5.7 | 33% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -9.2 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | -8.7 | 24% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Florida #1 | conf | -14.0 | 13% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Georgia #32 | conf | -9.0 | 24% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -4.6 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Auburn #16 | conf | -12.0 | 17% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Arkansas #25 | conf | -10.7 | 20% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | -2.4 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Alabama #17 | conf | -12.5 | 16% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  LSU #39 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Texas #20 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | South Carolina #98 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Tennessee #13 | conf | -12.7 | 15% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Ole Miss #61 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
Projected margin is from Mississippi State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.