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Rice
Rice returns 70% of last season's minutes and rates #249 on offense and #263 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.8 to +2.8.
Why we have them here
Rice's preseason projection of -4.5 (No. 262 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.9, about the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 260 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.8, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.1. It returns 70% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Jacob Dar (+0.2), Carmelo Adkins (+0.2) and Stephen Giwa (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Jacob Dar, a transfer from Seton Hall, at +0.2. Its 80% range, -11.8 to +2.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 70% · Transfer 21% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1321 | Jacob Dar | G | 6-7 | 4 | Transfer | Seton Hall | 15 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| 1424 | Stephen Giwa | C | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Rice | 18 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1454 | Carmelo Adkins | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | South Carolina Upstate | 27 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1505 | Cam Carroll | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Rice | 23 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 3199 | Jaxson Thompson | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3641 | Dallas Hobbs | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Rice | 16 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 3909 | Presley Patterson | G | 5-11 | 3 | Returning | Rice | 7 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| 3927 | Eternity Eguagie | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Rice | 18 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
| 4020 | George Perkins | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Rice | 8 | -2.6 | -0.5 |
| 4087 | Jimmy Oladokun Jr. | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Rice | 20 | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| 4151 | Cole Andrews-Heitz | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Rice | 7 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 4285 | Jarne Eyenga | C | 1 | Other newcomer | 8 | -3.1 | -0.6 | ||
| 4665 | Bodey Howell | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Rice | 13 | -2.9 | -0.9 |
| 4735 | Evan Cochran | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Rice | 9 | -3.7 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | +7.7 | 73% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Stanford #69 | -15.7 | 10% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | -8.1 | 25% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | +1.1 | 54% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Lamar #238 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  UIC #120 | -5.0 | 34% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Ohio #232 | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Arkansas State #134 | -10.9 | 19% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | +2.6 | 58% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | vs |  Nicholls #267 | +5.3 | 67% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Denver #240 | -5.2 | 34% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +8.2 | 75% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  Temple #149 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  Tulane #250 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Memphis #100 | conf | -10.0 | 21% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  North Texas #135 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at | Temple #149 | conf | -5.6 | 32% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  UTSA #284 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | -8.4 | 25% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  South Florida #83 | conf | -12.0 | 17% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Tulane #250 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  East Carolina #182 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Sun Feb 07 | at | UTSA #284 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs |  Tulsa #82 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sun Feb 14 | vs |  Wichita State #62 | conf | -7.8 | 26% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | East Carolina #182 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Charlotte #131 | conf | -6.7 | 29% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs |  UAB #158 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sun Feb 28 | vs | Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Sun Mar 07 | at | North Texas #135 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
Projected margin is from Rice's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.