Teams › MAC · Compare Bowling Green with another team
Bowling Green
Bowling Green returns 48% of last season's minutes and rates #256 on offense and #265 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.0 to +2.6.
Why we have them here
Bowling Green's preseason projection of -4.8 (No. 266 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.4, about the -2.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 106 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.7, more than its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.4. It returns 48% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on Jayden Johnson (+0.1), Tristan Beckford (+0.0) and Christian Dedivanaj (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jayden Johnson, a transfer from South Carolina State, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -12.0 to +2.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 44% · Transfer 34% · Freshman 7% · Other newcomer 16%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1448 | Jayden Johnson | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | South Carolina State | 24 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1661 | Tristan Beckford | F | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | South Florida | 11 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2310 | Christian Dedivanaj | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Bowling Green | 8 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2433 | Trey Simmons | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.0 | -0.2 | |
| 2514 | Talan Staley | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.2 | -0.2 | |
| 2594 | Jaxon Pardon | F | 6-4 | 2 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.2 | -0.2 | |
| 2687 | Josiah Shackelford | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Bowling Green | 23 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| 2840 | KJ Torbert | F | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 13 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| 3032 | Alijah Adem | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Bowling Green | 8 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 3204 | Leek Ateny | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3210 | Mohamed Maxamud | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Bowling Green | 8 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| 3751 | Preston Squire | F | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Bowling Green | 9 | -2.1 | -0.5 |
| 3805 | Juan Cranford Jr. | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Eastern Kentucky | 22 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| 4287 | Christ Essandoko | F | 7-0 | 3 | Transfer | South Carolina | 10 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| 4291 | Aiden Goins | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Bowling Green | 11 | -2.5 | -0.7 |
| 4425 | Camden Karel | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Bowling Green | 9 | -3.0 | -0.7 |
| 4500 | Makhi Leach | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Bowling Green | 11 | -2.8 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Georgia State #260 | -6.2 | 31% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Cleveland State #207 | +3.9 | 62% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Niagara #329 | +8.1 | 75% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  William & Mary #168 | -10.1 | 21% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Northern Illinois #333 | +9.0 | 77% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Gardner-Webb #361 | +13.1 | 85% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | at |  Indiana #55 | -18.6 | 7% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Tulsa #82 | -9.1 | 23% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Kent State #133 | conf | -7.0 | 29% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Western Michigan #151 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -5.2 | 34% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Akron #73 | conf | -13.1 | 15% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Ohio #232 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Central Michigan #259 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Ball State #153 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Buffalo #209 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Massachusetts #178 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Kent State #133 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | Western Michigan #151 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Toledo #173 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at | Ball State #153 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -11.1 | 19% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Buffalo #209 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Akron #73 | conf | -7.2 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Toledo #173 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Central Michigan #259 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Massachusetts #178 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | Ohio #232 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Fri Mar 05 | vs | Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
Projected margin is from Bowling Green's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.