Roster Math

Teams › SWAC · Compare Jackson State with another team

Jackson State

Jackson State returns 77% of last season's minutes and rates #353 on offense and #344 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -20.5 to -5.8.

-13.1
Rating · #355 of 365
-7.8
Offense · #353
-5.3
Defense · #344
-20.5 to -5.8
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
9-23
Projected record · 5 to 14 wins
8-10
Projected in SWAC · 4 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Jackson State's preseason projection of -13.1 (No. 355 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -7.8, about the -7.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 353 at the end of 2025-26) adds -3.1, about its neighbours' -2.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.5. It returns 77% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (78%). The projection leans most on Makhi Myles (+1.3), Jayden Williams (+0.2) and Cael Jones (-0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Makhi Myles, a transfer from SE Louisiana, at +1.3. Its 80% range, -20.5 to -5.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 77% · Transfer 17%

Makhi Myles+1.3
Jayden Williams+0.2
Cael Jones-0.7
Dorian McMillian-1.0
Deyan Kolev-1.1
Kedrick Simmons-1.2
Tamarion Hoover-1.4
Raevon Thomas-1.4
Ebo Wilson-1.5
Kobe Butler-1.5
Delyle Williams-1.8
Mike Williams-2.0
Jalen Tatum-2.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
701Makhi MylesF6-72TransferSE Louisiana21+2.5+1.3
1277Jayden WilliamsC6-92TransferIncarnate Word12+0.8+0.2
4185Dorian McMillianG6-32ReturningJackson State24-1.6-1.0
4654Cael JonesG6-11ReturningJackson State6-4.1-0.7
4885Tamarion HooverG6-42ReturningJackson State19-2.8-1.4
4951Raevon ThomasF6-92ReturningJackson State18-3.2-1.4
5060Deyan KolevF6-91ReturningJackson State9-5.2-1.1
5064Kedrick SimmonsF6-61ReturningJackson State10-4.8-1.2
5163Delyle WilliamsG6-33ReturningJackson State16-4.7-1.8
5175Jalen TatumG6-42ReturningJackson State18-4.5-2.0
5176Kobe ButlerF6-71ReturningJackson State10-6.0-1.5
5188Ebo WilsonC6-102ReturningJackson State9-6.4-1.5
5214Mike WilliamsG6-21ReturningJackson State14-5.8-2.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atTexas Tech #15-29.8<1%
Thu Nov 05atTulane #250-12.616%
Mon Nov 09atMississippi State #78-21.44%
Wed Nov 11atSouthern Miss #214-13.714%
Sat Nov 14atWinthrop #177-14.812%
Wed Nov 18atBaylor #37-26.62%
Wed Nov 25atOklahoma State #91-21.54%
Wed Dec 02atMemphis #100-19.96%
Tue Dec 08atTexas #20-29.0<1%
Tue Dec 15atTulsa #82-21.14%
Thu Dec 17atOklahoma #30-26.72%
Sun Dec 20atSaint Louis #56-24.33%
Tue Dec 22atLouisiana Tech #269-10.819%
Mon Dec 28atOle Miss #61-21.94%
Sat Jan 02atAlcorn State #358conf-2.642%
Sat Jan 09vsAlabama State #340conf+0.752%
Mon Jan 11vsAlabama A&M #343conf+1.053%
Sat Jan 16atPrairie View A&M #341conf-4.436%
Mon Jan 18atTexas Southern #331conf-6.031%
Sat Jan 23vsBethune-Cookman #220conf-4.636%
Mon Jan 25vsFlorida A&M #336conf+0.752%
Sat Jan 30atGrambling #302conf-6.131%
Mon Feb 01atSouthern #235conf-10.819%
Sat Feb 06vsMississippi Valley State #365conf+12.284%
Mon Feb 08vsArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf+2.357%
Sat Feb 13atFlorida A&M #336conf-5.333%
Mon Feb 15atBethune-Cookman #220conf-10.919%
Sat Feb 20vsAlcorn State #358conf+3.661%
Thu Feb 25vsPrairie View A&M #341conf+0.852%
Sat Feb 27vsTexas Southern #331conf+0.251%
Tue Mar 02atArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf-3.339%
Thu Mar 04atMississippi Valley State #365conf+6.169%

Projected margin is from Jackson State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.