Teams › CUSA · Compare Middle Tennessee with another team
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #126 on offense and #137 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.7 to +10.0.
Why we have them here
Middle Tennessee's preseason projection of +2.7 (No. 127 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.8, about the +1.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 175 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, about its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.5. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (53%). The projection leans most on Sean Smith (+2.3), Jahvin Carter (+2.1) and Ofri Naveh (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Ofri Naveh, a transfer from Oral Roberts, at +1.2. Its 80% range, -4.7 to +10.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 52% · Transfer 35% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 395 | Sean Smith | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 24 | +3.9 | +2.3 |
| 482 | Jahvin Carter | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 27 | +3.1 | +2.1 |
| 794 | Ofri Naveh | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Oral Roberts | 26 | +1.9 | +1.2 |
| 1319 | Kevin de Kovachich | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | North Alabama | 27 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| 1486 | Eli Rice | G | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Penn State | 18 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 1585 | Marcus Whitlock Jr. | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 12 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | James Dent Jr. | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 11 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| 2527 | Jax Howard | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |
| 2882 | Charvez Ambrose | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |
| 3146 | Brandon Oloumou | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.9 | -0.3 | |
| 3204 | Savon Wykle | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3245 | Landyn Colyer | G | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -1.9 | -0.3 |
| 3310 | Luka Jovanovic | C | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 13 | -1.4 | -0.5 |
| 3454 | Jarred Hall | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Middle Tennessee | 8 | -1.9 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Kansas #10 | -20.9 | 5% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Evansville #317 | +13.0 | 85% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Southeast Missouri State #219 | +9.4 | 78% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Georgia Southern #298 | +1.1 | 54% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Temple #149 | +1.1 | 54% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Tennessee Tech #280 | +11.4 | 82% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Belmont #94 | -7.7 | 27% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | N |  Auburn #16 | -11.7 | 17% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | at |  UAB #158 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Tulsa #82 | -3.6 | 39% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Jacksonville State #203 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Kennesaw State #167 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | conf | +5.3 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  New Mexico State #137 | conf | +3.4 | 61% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Liberty #150 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Delaware #325 | conf | +6.6 | 71% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Florida International #143 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Missouri State #201 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Western Kentucky #160 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | New Mexico State #137 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Sam Houston #185 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Delaware #325 | conf | +10.0 | 79% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Liberty #150 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Missouri State #201 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Florida International #143 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Western Kentucky #160 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Kennesaw State #167 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Jacksonville State #203 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
Projected margin is from Middle Tennessee's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.