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Tulane
Tulane returns 34% of last season's minutes and rates #205 on offense and #282 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.1 to +3.3.
Why we have them here
Tulane's preseason projection of -3.9 (No. 250 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.4, about the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 276 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.2, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.6. It returns 34% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Carson Schwieger (+0.9), TJ Nadeau (+0.7) and Jordann Dumont (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Carson Schwieger, a transfer from Queens University, at +0.9. Its 80% range, -11.1 to +3.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 34% · Transfer 51% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 901 | Carson Schwieger | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Queens University | 22 | +1.7 | +0.9 |
| 1056 | TJ Nadeau | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Detroit Mercy | 23 | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| 1605 | Jordann Dumont | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | VCU | 9 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2151 | Tyler Ringgold | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Tulane | 22 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 3088 | Krystian Lewis | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | UL Monroe | 29 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| 3570 | Josiah Moore | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Tulane | 14 | -1.6 | -0.5 |
| 3592 | KJ Greene | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Tulane | 15 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 3818 | Joseph Teich | G | 5-10 | 2 | Returning | Tulane | 6 | -2.7 | -0.4 |
| 4064 | Robert Moore | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Tulane | 6 | -2.9 | -0.5 |
| 4114 | Ryan Blount | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.4 | -0.6 | ||
| 4148 | Luke Cronin | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Tulane | 6 | -3.2 | -0.5 |
| 4308 | Dame Salane | F | 7-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.7 | -0.7 | |
| 4615 | Joah Chappelle | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Georgia State | 19 | -2.3 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs | +6.5 | 70% | ||
| Thu Nov 05 | vs | +12.6 | 84% | ||
| Tue Nov 10 | vs | +6.6 | 70% | ||
| Sat Nov 14 | at | -15.1 | 11% | ||
| Thu Nov 19 | at | -4.4 | 36% | ||
| Mon Nov 23 | N | +0.4 | 51% | ||
| Wed Nov 25 | N | -4.0 | 37% | ||
| Sun Nov 29 | vs | +13.4 | 86% | ||
| Wed Dec 02 | at | -6.8 | 29% | ||
| Sun Dec 06 | vs | +7.3 | 73% | ||
| Sat Dec 12 | vs | +2.5 | 58% | ||
| Fri Dec 18 | vs | +21.0 | 96% | ||
| Tue Dec 22 | vs | +2.9 | 59% | ||
| Wed Dec 30 | at | conf | -5.1 | 34% | |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs | conf | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | at | conf | -4.3 | 36% | |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs | conf | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Thu Jan 14 | at | conf | -6.1 | 31% | |
| Sun Jan 17 | at | conf | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs | conf | -0.5 | 48% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | conf | -1.3 | 46% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | conf | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs | conf | -3.5 | 39% | |
| Sun Feb 07 | at | conf | -10.9 | 19% | |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | conf | -11.9 | 17% | |
| Sun Feb 14 | vs | conf | -1.8 | 44% | |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | conf | +4.2 | 63% | |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | conf | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | conf | -5.2 | 34% | |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | conf | -6.6 | 30% | |
| Sun Mar 07 | at | conf | -9.6 | 22% |
Projected margin is from Tulane's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.