Roster Math

Teams › American · Compare Tulane with another team

Tulane

Tulane returns 34% of last season's minutes and rates #205 on offense and #282 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.1 to +3.3.

-3.9
Rating · #250 of 365
-1.2
Offense · #205
-2.7
Defense · #282
-11.1 to +3.3
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-16
Projected record · 9 to 20 wins
7-11
Projected in American · 3 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Tulane's preseason projection of -3.9 (No. 250 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.4, about the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 276 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.2, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.6. It returns 34% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Carson Schwieger (+0.9), TJ Nadeau (+0.7) and Jordann Dumont (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Carson Schwieger, a transfer from Queens University, at +0.9. Its 80% range, -11.1 to +3.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 34% · Transfer 51% · Other newcomer 10%

Carson Schwieger+0.9
TJ Nadeau+0.7
Jordann Dumont+0.0
Tyler Ringgold-0.2
Joseph Teich-0.4
Luke Cronin-0.5
Robert Moore-0.5
Josiah Moore-0.5
KJ Greene-0.6
Ryan Blount-0.6
Krystian Lewis-0.6
Dame Salane-0.7
Joah Chappelle-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
901Carson SchwiegerF6-82TransferQueens University22+1.7+0.9
1056TJ NadeauG6-52TransferDetroit Mercy23+1.2+0.7
1605Jordann DumontF6-82TransferVCU9+0.1+0.0
2151Tyler RinggoldF6-82ReturningTulane22-0.4-0.2
3088Krystian LewisG6-31TransferUL Monroe29-0.9-0.6
3570Josiah MooreG6-42ReturningTulane14-1.6-0.5
3592KJ GreeneG6-32ReturningTulane15-1.5-0.6
3818Joseph TeichG5-102ReturningTulane6-2.7-0.4
4064Robert MooreG6-61ReturningTulane6-2.9-0.5
4114Ryan BlountG1Other newcomer10-2.4-0.6
4148Luke CroninF6-83ReturningTulane6-3.2-0.5
4308Dame SalaneF7-10Other newcomer10-2.7-0.7
4615Joah ChappelleF6-81TransferGeorgia State19-2.3-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsUT Martin #271+6.570%
Thu Nov 05vsJackson State #355+12.684%
Tue Nov 10vsNicholls #267+6.670%
Sat Nov 14atAkron #73-15.111%
Thu Nov 19atLouisiana Tech #269-4.436%
Mon Nov 23NGeorgia State #260+0.451%
Wed Nov 25NDavidson #132-4.037%
Sun Nov 29vsUL Monroe #359+13.486%
Wed Dec 02atSouthern Miss #214-6.829%
Sun Dec 06vsLouisiana #294+7.373%
Sat Dec 12vsRhode Island #148+2.558%
Fri Dec 18vsMississippi Valley State #365+21.096%
Tue Dec 22vsWestern Kentucky #160+2.959%
Wed Dec 30atUAB #158conf-5.134%
Sun Jan 03vsRice #262conf+3.260%
Thu Jan 07atEast Carolina #182conf-4.336%
Sun Jan 10vsSouth Florida #83conf-5.533%
Thu Jan 14atNorth Texas #135conf-6.131%
Sun Jan 17atUTSA #284conf-0.449%
Wed Jan 20vsTemple #149conf-0.548%
Sat Jan 23vsCharlotte #131conf-1.346%
Sat Jan 30atRice #262conf-1.545%
Tue Feb 02vsMemphis #100conf-3.539%
Sun Feb 07atTulsa #82conf-10.919%
Wed Feb 10atWichita State #62conf-11.917%
Sun Feb 14vsFlorida Atlantic #122conf-1.844%
Thu Feb 18vsUTSA #284conf+4.263%
Sun Feb 21vsEast Carolina #182conf+0.752%
Wed Feb 24atTemple #149conf-5.234%
Wed Mar 03vsWichita State #62conf-6.630%
Sun Mar 07atMemphis #100conf-9.622%

Projected margin is from Tulane's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.