Roster Math

Teams › MVC · Compare Bradley with another team

Bradley

Bradley returns 54% of last season's minutes and rates #242 on offense and #147 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.9 to +5.9.

-1.4
Rating · #194 of 365
-2.2
Offense · #242
+0.8
Defense · #147
-8.9 to +5.9
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-15
Projected record · 8 to 19 wins
9-11
Projected in MVC · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Bradley's preseason projection of -1.4 (No. 194 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.0, less than the -1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 129 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.7. It returns 54% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Corey Thomas (+1.3), Kai Yu (-0.2) and Gus Rugaard (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jackson Seastrunk, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -8.9 to +5.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 43% · Transfer 25% · Other newcomer 11%

Corey Thomas+1.3
Kai Yu-0.2
Gus Rugaard-0.4
Jackson Seastrunk-0.4
Handy Toussaint III-0.4
Trevon Payton-0.4
Gustavo Guimares-0.5
Xander Alarie-0.8
Dietrich Richardson-1.0
Timoty van der Knaap-1.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
707Corey ThomasF6-102ReturningBradley22+2.4+1.3
2243Kai YuC7-02ReturningBradley14-0.6-0.2
2586Trevon PaytonG6-53TransferArkansas-Pine Bluff28-0.6-0.4
3108Jackson SeastrunkF6-50Other newcomer11-1.4-0.4
3247Gus RugaardG6-12ReturningBradley9-1.7-0.4
3592Gustavo GuimaresF6-110Other newcomer11-1.8-0.5
3609Handy Toussaint IIIF6-81ReturningBradley9-2.0-0.4
3913Xander AlarieF6-81TransferNortheastern22-1.4-0.8
4895Dietrich RichardsonG6-71ReturningBradley11-3.8-1.0
4926Timoty van der KnaapG6-82ReturningBradley22-2.7-1.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Sat Nov 07vsPacific #175+5.567%
Tue Nov 10atDavidson #132-7.926%
Thu Nov 12NCoppin State #364+11.282%
Sat Nov 14NGeorge Mason #107-3.738%
Wed Nov 18vsPurdue Fort Wayne #212+6.971%
Sat Nov 21atPacific #175-5.233%
Sat Nov 28vsChicago State #337+11.983%
Fri Dec 04atNorth Texas #135-7.727%
Tue Dec 08vsGreen Bay #281+8.977%
Fri Dec 18vsBelmont #94conf-2.343%
Mon Dec 21atNorthern Iowa #88conf-8.026%
Tue Dec 29vsValparaiso #172conf+2.458%
Mon Jan 04vsMurray State #117conf-0.150%
Sat Jan 09atSouthern Illinois #206conf-2.143%
Tue Jan 12atIndiana State #116conf-6.630%
Sat Jan 16vsDrake #104conf-0.947%
Tue Jan 19atUIC #120conf-5.034%
Thu Jan 21vsEvansville #317conf+7.873%
Sun Jan 24vsIllinois State #108conf-0.648%
Wed Jan 27atMurray State #117conf-5.733%
Wed Feb 03atEvansville #317conf+1.354%
Sat Feb 06vsUIC #120conf+0.251%
Tue Feb 09atBelmont #94conf-7.727%
Fri Feb 12atDrake #104conf-6.331%
Mon Feb 15vsNorthern Iowa #88conf-2.442%
Thu Feb 18atValparaiso #172conf-3.240%
Sun Feb 21vsSouthern Illinois #206conf+3.762%
Wed Feb 24vsIndiana State #116conf-0.150%
Sat Feb 27atIllinois State #108conf-7.128%

Projected margin is from Bradley's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.