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North Dakota State
North Dakota State returns 47% of last season's minutes and rates #160 on offense and #294 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.2 to +4.5.
Why we have them here
North Dakota State's preseason projection of -2.7 (No. 225 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.0, less than the -1.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 97 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.9, more than its neighbours' -0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.9. It returns 47% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on Andy Stefonowicz (+2.2), Jack Robison (+0.4) and Riley Saunders (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Jack Robison, a transfer from Wisconsin, at +0.4. Its 80% range, -10.2 to +4.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 42% · Transfer 20% · Other newcomer 11%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 | Andy Stefonowicz | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota State | 30 | +2.9 | +2.2 |
| 1163 | Jack Robison | F | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Wisconsin | 12 | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| 1763 | Riley Saunders | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota State | 13 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2773 | Dom Clay | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.1 | -0.3 | |
| 3067 | Jaziah Harper | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.4 | -0.4 | |
| 3632 | Caleb Schoenrock | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota State | 10 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| 4171 | Riley Massey | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota State | 15 | -2.0 | -0.8 |
| 5009 | Carson Smith | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota State | 14 | -3.7 | -1.3 |
| 5225 | Melvin Bell Jr. | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | San José State | 28 | -4.3 | -3.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 04 | at |  Saint Mary's #60 | -14.9 | 11% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  San Francisco #189 | -6.4 | 30% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | -2.7 | 41% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Illinois State #108 | +0.6 | 52% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | +9.6 | 78% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Colorado State #67 | -13.8 | 13% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  North Texas #135 | -3.3 | 39% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Drake #104 | -4.9 | 35% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  UC Davis #255 | +6.4 | 70% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  Washington State #162 | -8.7 | 24% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  Idaho #251 | -4.3 | 36% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at | Illinois State #108 | -10.8 | 19% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Idaho State #261 | +6.3 | 70% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Cal State Northridge #227 | -5.7 | 32% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Omaha #274 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Kansas City #338 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  South Dakota State #213 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  South Dakota #322 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Fri Jan 29 | at |  North Dakota #310 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Omaha #274 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Oral Roberts #323 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Kansas City #338 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | South Dakota #322 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | South Dakota State #213 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | North Dakota #310 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
Projected margin is from North Dakota State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.