Teams › SWAC · Compare Mississippi Valley State with another team
Mississippi Valley State
Mississippi Valley State returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #365 on both offense and defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -32.9 to -18.3.
Why we have them here
Mississippi Valley State's preseason projection of -25.7 (No. 365 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -13.0, less than the -8.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 365 at the end of 2025-26) adds -5.1, less than its neighbours' -3.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -7.9. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Derrick Singleton (-0.8), PJ McDonald (-0.8) and Lamont Sams (-0.9). Its 80% range, -32.9 to -18.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 100%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4168 | Lamont Sams | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 21 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| 4756 | Daniel Mayfield | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 25 | -2.2 | -1.4 |
| 4934 | Derrick Singleton | F | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 6 | -5.5 | -0.8 |
| 4950 | Jonathan Pace | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 8 | -4.8 | -0.9 |
| 4965 | PJ McDonald | F | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 6 | -5.7 | -0.8 | |
| 5226 | Xzayvion Childress | G | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 20 | -5.1 | -2.6 | |
| 5229 | Antonio Sisk | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 14 | -6.3 | -2.2 |
| 5234 | Chance Sutton | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 11 | -7.5 | -2.0 |
| 5238 | Tyrone Iroghama | G | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 11 | -7.8 | -2.0 |
| 5239 | Mussa Mzein | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 15 | -6.5 | -2.5 |
| 5240 | Patrick Punch | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 25 | -5.1 | -3.1 |
| 5243 | X'Zaevion Barnett | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 22 | -5.6 | -3.0 |
| 5247 | Delkedric Holmes | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Mississippi Valley State | 18 | -7.0 | -3.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | -34.8 | <1% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Washington #92 | -28.1 | 1% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Oregon #58 | -30.5 | <1% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Oregon State #93 | -28.7 | <1% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Arkansas #25 | -38.3 | <1% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  New Mexico #50 | -33.0 | <1% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Michigan #11 | -39.9 | <1% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  North Texas #135 | -24.1 | 3% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  UConn #4 | -39.0 | <1% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  Mississippi State #78 | -29.9 | <1% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  Tulane #250 | -21.0 | 4% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Ohio State #27 | -34.9 | <1% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | -37.8 | <1% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Baylor #37 | -34.8 | <1% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Alabama State #340 | conf | -13.7 | 13% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Alabama A&M #343 | conf | -13.5 | 14% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | -8.7 | 24% |
| Mon Jan 11 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | conf | -9.1 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | conf | -19.6 | 6% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Florida A&M #336 | conf | -14.0 | 13% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Grambling #302 | conf | -10.3 | 20% |
| Mon Jan 25 | vs |  Southern #235 | conf | -13.1 | 15% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | conf | -12.3 | 16% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Jackson State #355 | conf | -12.2 | 16% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at |  Alcorn State #358 | conf | -11.3 | 18% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Alabama A&M #343 | conf | -7.8 | 26% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Alabama State #340 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Texas Southern #331 | conf | -14.9 | 12% |
| Mon Feb 22 | at | Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | -13.5 | 14% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | conf | -7.1 | 29% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Alcorn State #358 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Jackson State #355 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
Projected margin is from Mississippi Valley State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.