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Texas State
Texas State returns 74% of last season's minutes and rates #202 on offense and #171 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.1 to +6.6.
Why we have them here
Texas State's preseason projection of -0.8 (No. 183 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.3, more than the -0.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 247 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.8, less than its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.6. It returns 74% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on DJ Hall (+4.0), Quel'Ron House (+1.9) and Robert Fields (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Quel'Ron House, a transfer from Southern Illinois, at +1.9. Its 80% range, -8.1 to +6.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 74% · Transfer 18% · Freshman 8%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | DJ Hall | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Texas State | 29 | +5.6 | +4.0 |
| 530 | Quel'Ron House | G | 6-0 | 2 | Transfer | Southern Illinois | 27 | +2.9 | +1.9 |
| 1856 | Robert Fields | C | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Texas State | 15 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2270 | Mark Drone | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Texas State | 27 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2504 | Dimp Pernell | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Texas State | 16 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| 2566 | Kole Grandison | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
| 3010 | Josiah Sanders | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 3347 | Deke Thompson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Texas State | 5 | -2.4 | -0.3 |
| 3930 | Cameron Simpson | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Texas State | 5 | -3.1 | -0.4 |
| 4017 | Kaden Gumbs | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Texas State | 24 | -1.5 | -0.9 |
| 4195 | Caleb Steger | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Boston College | 10 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| 4291 | Jaelyn Lee | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Texas State | 7 | -3.3 | -0.5 |
| 4328 | Ky Pernell | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Texas State | 8 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 4483 | Tay Knox | C | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Texas State | 12 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | -4.6 | 35% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | +7.1 | 72% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  UTSA #284 | -1.3 | 46% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +10.2 | 80% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | vs |  McNeese #80 | +0.1 | 50% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +14.9 | 89% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | at |  Louisiana Tech #269 | -2.3 | 42% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Nicholls #267 | +8.9 | 76% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs | Louisiana Tech #269 | +8.5 | 76% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Houston #8 | -22.5 | 3% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs | UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | +6.2 | 69% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | N |  North Texas #135 | -2.0 | 44% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  San Francisco #189 | +6.1 | 69% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +11.8 | 83% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Colorado State #67 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Utah State #29 | conf | -8.1 | 25% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Oregon State #93 | conf | -2.0 | 43% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  San Diego State #81 | conf | -9.2 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Fresno State #221 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs | Colorado State #67 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Boise State #87 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -17.9 | 7% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Washington State #162 | conf | -4.2 | 37% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | San Diego State #81 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sun Feb 14 | at | Oregon State #93 | conf | -8.5 | 24% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Fresno State #221 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Boise State #87 | conf | -8.9 | 24% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -11.5 | 18% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Washington State #162 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | Utah State #29 | conf | -14.5 | 12% |
Projected margin is from Texas State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.