Roster Math

Teams › Southland · Compare Texas A&M-Corpus Christi with another team

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi returns 86% of last season's minutes and rates #207 on offense and #103 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.9 to +8.3.

+1.2
Rating · #145 of 365
-1.2
Offense · #207
+2.4
Defense · #103
-5.9 to +8.3
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-14
Projected record · 11 to 21 wins
14-8
Projected in Southland · 9 to 18 wins

Why we have them here

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's preseason projection of +1.2 (No. 145 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.4, about the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 161 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.5. It returns 86% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on Sheldon Williams (+3.6), Nick Shogbonyo (+1.4) and Mason Gibson (+1.0); the newcomer who matters most is Ja'Cori Jones, a freshman, recruit No. 372, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -5.9 to +8.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 83% · Transfer 10% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 3%

Sheldon Williams+3.6
Nick Shogbonyo+1.4
Mason Gibson+1.0
Daniel Michelini-Jackson+0.8
Cenker Evran+0.3
Cedric Horton-0.1
Trenton Pane-0.2
Kayden Crosby-0.2
Ja'Cori Jones-0.2
Michael Oaks-0.3
Kobi Pearson-0.4
Jamal Ambrose-0.5
Kam Parker-0.5
Bryson Wheatfall-0.6
Jaden Haire-0.7
Sebastian Robinson-1.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
152Sheldon WilliamsF6-82ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi24+5.9+3.6
686Nick ShogbonyoG6-12ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi22+2.5+1.4
829Mason GibsonG6-01ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi21+2.0+1.0
916Daniel Michelini-JacksonG6-51ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi16+1.9+0.8
1288Cenker EvranF6-81ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi19+0.6+0.3
1952Cedric HortonG6-51ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi8-0.5-0.1
2301Trenton PaneG5-101ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi7-0.9-0.2
2695Ja'Cori JonesG5-110FreshmanHigh school8-1.3-0.2
2981Michael OaksF6-103Other newcomer5-1.9-0.3
3022Kayden CrosbyF6-71ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi5-2.1-0.2
3200Kam ParkerG6-23ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi14-1.3-0.5
3269Kobi PearsonF6-81ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi8-1.8-0.4
4121Bryson WheatfallG6-41ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi9-2.5-0.6
4251Jamal AmbroseF6-103ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi5-3.8-0.5
4450Sebastian RobinsonG6-33TransferNJIT20-2.1-1.0
4636Jaden HaireF6-71ReturningTexas A&M-Corpus Christi7-3.8-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atTexas State #183-4.635%
Fri Nov 06atLouisiana #294+0.150%
Fri Nov 13atFlorida State #90-10.221%
Tue Nov 17atRice #262-1.146%
Sat Nov 21atOral Roberts #323+1.655%
Mon Nov 23atWichita State #62-11.517%
Sat Dec 05atNicholls #267conf+2.658%
Mon Dec 07atNew Orleans #303conf+4.163%
Sat Dec 12atBoise State #87-10.619%
Sat Dec 19vsLamar #238conf+6.570%
Mon Dec 21vsStephen F. Austin #161conf+3.962%
Tue Dec 29atHouston #8-21.44%
Sat Jan 02atUT Rio Grande Valley #191conf-0.349%
Mon Jan 04vsHouston Christian #273conf+7.473%
Sat Jan 09vsNorthwestern State #277conf+7.573%
Mon Jan 11vsEast Texas A&M #319conf+10.079%
Sat Jan 16atSE Louisiana #286conf+2.959%
Mon Jan 18atMcNeese #80conf-7.726%
Sat Jan 23vsIncarnate Word #308conf+8.977%
Tue Jan 26atHouston Christian #273conf+2.358%
Sat Jan 30atIncarnate Word #308conf+3.662%
Mon Feb 01vsUT Rio Grande Valley #191conf+4.966%
Sat Feb 06vsNicholls #267conf+7.673%
Mon Feb 08vsNew Orleans #303conf+9.177%
Sat Feb 13atLamar #238conf+0.752%
Mon Feb 15atStephen F. Austin #161conf-1.346%
Sat Feb 20vsMcNeese #80conf-1.246%
Mon Feb 22vsSE Louisiana #286conf+8.074%
Sat Feb 27atNorthwestern State #277conf+1.755%
Mon Mar 01atEast Texas A&M #319conf+4.263%

Projected margin is from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.