Roster Math

Teams › MEAC · Compare South Carolina State with another team

South Carolina State

South Carolina State returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #361 on offense and #333 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -21.8 to -7.0.

-14.4
Rating · #360 of 365
-9.6
Offense · #361
-4.7
Defense · #333
-21.8 to -7.0
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
9-19
Projected record · 5 to 14 wins
6-8
Projected in MEAC · 3 to 9 wins

Why we have them here

South Carolina State's preseason projection of -14.4 (No. 360 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -8.9, less than the -7.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 358 at the end of 2025-26) adds -3.8, about its neighbours' -3.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.0. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Owen Bronston Jr. (-0.1), Noah Treadwell (-0.9) and James Morrow (-1.0). Its 80% range, -21.8 to -7.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 100%

Owen Bronston Jr.-0.1
Noah Treadwell-0.9
James Morrow-1.0
Chris Parker-1.1
Teon Tindal-1.3
Jamal Miles-1.4
Tim Okojie-1.4
Derwin Hodge Jr.-1.7
D'Shay Knights Wright-1.8
Florian Tenebay-1.9
Cameron Clark-2.3
Rayniel Wright-2.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1896Owen Bronston Jr.G6-61ReturningSouth Carolina State21-0.2-0.1
4174Noah TreadwellG6-51ReturningSouth Carolina State23-1.6-0.9
4340James MorrowG6-83ReturningSouth Carolina State20-2.0-1.0
4574Chris ParkerG6-51ReturningSouth Carolina State18-2.3-1.1
5058Teon TindalC6-71ReturningSouth Carolina State11-4.5-1.3
5085Tim OkojieC7-11ReturningSouth Carolina State12-4.5-1.4
5117Florian TenebayG6-62ReturningSouth Carolina State21-3.7-1.9
5123Derwin Hodge Jr.F6-101ReturningSouth Carolina State17-4.1-1.7
5142Jamal MilesG6-42ReturningSouth Carolina State10-5.6-1.4
5161D'Shay Knights WrightF6-92ReturningSouth Carolina State15-4.8-1.8
5211Cameron ClarkF6-102ReturningSouth Carolina State18-5.0-2.3
5245Rayniel WrightG6-01ReturningSouth Carolina State15-6.8-2.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06atSouth Carolina Upstate #268-11.917%
Mon Nov 09atChicago State #337-8.624%
Wed Nov 11atNotre Dame #75-21.44%
Sun Nov 15atCharleston #141-16.49%
Fri Nov 20atThe Citadel #345-7.427%
Mon Nov 23vsNorth Carolina A&T #285+0.150%
Sat Nov 28atDuquesne #156-16.59%
Wed Dec 02vsWinthrop #177-3.738%
Sat Dec 05vsCharleston Southern #276-0.549%
Fri Dec 11atNorthern Kentucky #270-12.616%
Wed Dec 16atChattanooga #226-12.815%
Fri Dec 18atWichita State #62-22.43%
Mon Dec 21atWest Virginia #48-24.22%
Tue Dec 29atSouth Carolina #98-20.15%
Sat Jan 02atHoward #196conf-10.720%
Sat Jan 09vsMorgan State #348conf+0.953%
Mon Jan 11vsCoppin State #364conf+4.965%
Sat Jan 16atNorfolk State #300conf-8.724%
Sat Jan 23atMaryland Eastern Shore #356conf-3.838%
Mon Jan 25atDelaware State #363conf-0.648%
Sat Jan 30atNorth Carolina Central #353conf-4.436%
Sat Feb 06vsHoward #196conf-6.231%
Sat Feb 13atMorgan State #348conf-5.334%
Mon Feb 15atCoppin State #364conf-0.648%
Sat Feb 20vsNorfolk State #300conf-2.642%
Sat Feb 27vsMaryland Eastern Shore #356conf+1.956%
Mon Mar 01vsDelaware State #363conf+4.564%
Thu Mar 04vsNorth Carolina Central #353conf+1.555%

Projected margin is from South Carolina State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.