Roster Math

Teams › SEC · Compare Georgia with another team

Georgia

Georgia returns 50% of last season's minutes and rates #30 on offense and #48 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +7.5 to +22.1.

+14.8
Rating · #32 of 365
+9.7
Offense · #30
+5.2
Defense · #48
+7.5 to +22.1
80% range
28%
Chance of top 25
<1%
Chance of No. 1
20-12
Projected record · 15 to 24 wins
8-10
Projected in SEC · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Georgia's preseason projection of +14.8 (No. 32 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +10.8, more than the +8.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 30 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.0, about its neighbours' +2.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.8. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.8, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 50% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Blue Cain (+5.7), Marcus Millender (+4.5) and Kanon Catchings (+3.7); the newcomer who matters most is James Scott, a transfer from Ole Miss, at +2.3. Its 80% range, +7.5 to +22.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 50% · Transfer 37% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 4%

Blue Cain+5.7
Marcus Millender+4.5
Kanon Catchings+3.7
James Scott+2.3
Freddie Dilione V+2.3
Brady Dunlap+1.8
Kareem Stagg+0.7
Andrew Osasuyi+0.5
Brandon Klatsky+0.0
Kemauri Millender+0.0
Markel Jennings+0.0
Hakeem Weems+0.0
Freddie Dilione-0.1
David Ugonna Ike-0.1
Mading Kuany-0.1
Donovan Williams-0.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
33Blue CainG6-53ReturningGeorgia27+8.4+5.7
95Marcus MillenderG5-113ReturningGeorgia27+6.7+4.5
132Kanon CatchingsF6-92ReturningGeorgia23+6.4+3.7
332James ScottF6-103TransferOle Miss20+4.7+2.3
403Freddie Dilione VG6-53TransferPenn State24+3.8+2.3
446Brady DunlapF6-73TransferSaint Louis17+4.2+1.8
931Kareem StaggF6-81ReturningGeorgia14+2.1+0.7
1006Andrew OsasuyiC6-91TransferSt. Bonaventure12+1.8+0.5
1697Brandon KlatskyG6-43ReturningGeorgia5-0.1+0.0
1750Markel JenningsG5-111ReturningGeorgia4-0.2+0.0
1761Kemauri MillenderG5-110Other newcomer2-0.3+0.0
1821Hakeem WeemsC6-90FreshmanHigh school3-0.5+0.0
1925Freddie DilioneG1Other newcomer3-0.7-0.1
2032David Ugonna IkeF7-00Other newcomer3-0.9-0.1
2151Mading KuanyF6-80FreshmanHigh school8-0.7-0.1
2542Donovan WilliamsG6-30FreshmanHigh school7-1.2-0.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsNorth Carolina Central #353+26.998%
Fri Nov 06vsPresbyterian #243+20.095%
Mon Nov 09vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299+22.997%
Fri Nov 13atNorth Carolina #54-4.835%
Mon Nov 16vsJacksonville #253+20.195%
Fri Nov 20atGeorgia Tech #140+4.263%
Thu Nov 26NCincinnati #42+1.354%
Fri Nov 27NUCF #70+4.464%
Tue Dec 01vsBoston College #114+15.389%
Tue Dec 08NDuke #2-8.525%
Sun Dec 13vsAlabama A&M #343+24.798%
Wed Dec 16vsWest Georgia #295+23.297%
Sun Dec 20vsGardner-Webb #361+29.2>99%
Tue Dec 29vsNorth Florida #321+25.198%
Sat Jan 02atOle Miss #61conf+1.053%
Tue Jan 05vsTexas #20conf+1.053%
Sat Jan 09atAuburn #16conf-7.428%
Tue Jan 12vsOklahoma #30conf+3.561%
Sat Jan 16vsMississippi State #78conf+9.076%
Tue Jan 19atArkansas #25conf-5.832%
Sat Jan 23vsFlorida #1conf-8.325%
Sat Jan 30vsLSU #39conf+4.765%
Wed Feb 03atTennessee #13conf-8.325%
Sat Feb 06atSouth Carolina #98conf+3.260%
Tue Feb 09vsVanderbilt #26conf+2.959%
Sat Feb 13atTexas A&M #31conf-3.738%
Tue Feb 16vsKentucky #22conf+1.254%
Sat Feb 20atFlorida #1conf-16.110%
Wed Feb 24atOklahoma #30conf-4.037%
Sat Feb 27vsMissouri #43conf+5.065%
Wed Mar 03atAlabama #17conf-7.727%
Sat Mar 06vsSouth Carolina #98conf+10.580%

Projected margin is from Georgia's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.