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Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt returns 24% of last season's minutes and rates #34 on offense and #24 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +8.7 to +23.4.
Why we have them here
Vanderbilt's preseason projection of +16.0 (No. 26 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.2, about the +9.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 11 at the end of 2025-26) adds +4.1, more than its neighbours' +3.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.0. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 24% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Tyler Tanner (+9.3), Ace Glass (+3.4) and Bangot Dak (+2.3); the newcomer who matters most is Ace Glass, a transfer from Washington State, at +3.4. Its 80% range, +8.7 to +23.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 24% · Transfer 55% · Freshman 18% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tyler Tanner | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Vanderbilt | 31 | +11.9 | +9.3 |
| 188 | Ace Glass | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Washington State | 26 | +5.1 | +3.4 |
| 374 | Bangot Dak | F | 7-0 | 3 | Transfer | Colorado | 22 | +4.1 | +2.3 |
| 711 | Berke Buyuktuncel | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Nebraska | 21 | +2.4 | +1.3 |
| 852 | T.O. Barrett | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Missouri | 19 | +2.0 | +1.0 |
| 915 | Gabe Nesmith | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 13 | +2.1 | +0.7 |
| 1166 | Jayden Leverett | C | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Vanderbilt | 6 | +1.7 | +0.3 |
| 1304 | Ethan Mgbako | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| 1347 | Anthony Brown | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | +0.7 | +0.2 |
| 1501 | Jackson Sheffield | C | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 3 | +0.5 | +0.0 |
| 1581 | Baylor Allen | F | 5-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1634 | Ant Brown Jr. | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| 1634 | Mavrick Hawkins | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| 1658 | Chase Byington | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.0 | +0.0 | |
| 1715 | Sebastian Williams-Adams | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Auburn | 21 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 4499 | Chandler Bing | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Vanderbilt | 11 | -2.8 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Bellarmine #305 | +21.9 | 96% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Wake Forest #76 | +12.2 | 84% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Memphis #100 | +14.5 | 88% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | +25.5 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Eastern Illinois #324 | +23.2 | 97% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  UCF #70 | +11.7 | 83% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Ohio State #27 | -6.4 | 30% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Southern #235 | +21.0 | 95% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | -0.5 | 49% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  California #115 | +3.1 | 60% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  West Georgia #295 | +22.8 | 97% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Southern Indiana #315 | +23.3 | 97% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Milwaukee #242 | +20.3 | 95% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +27.4 | 99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Tennessee #13 | conf | -7.1 | 28% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Florida #1 | conf | -14.4 | 12% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +10.6 | 81% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -5.6 | 32% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  LSU #39 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Georgia #32 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Texas #20 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Texas A&M #31 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Kentucky #22 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Alabama #17 | conf | -6.4 | 31% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Tennessee #13 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Vanderbilt's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.