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North Carolina Central
North Carolina Central returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #349 on offense and #345 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -19.9 to -4.9.
Why we have them here
North Carolina Central's preseason projection of -12.4 (No. 353 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -9.2, less than the -7.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 346 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.6, about its neighbours' -2.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.9. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (78%). The projection leans most on Khouri Carvey (+0.5), Caleb Ellison (-0.9) and Camren Daniels (-0.9). Its 80% range, -19.9 to -4.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 100%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1214 | Khouri Carvey | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 27 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| 4616 | Jae Slack | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 27 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| 4783 | Caleb Ellison | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 9 | -3.9 | -0.9 |
| 4857 | Camren Daniels | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 9 | -4.0 | -0.9 |
| 4994 | Gbenga Olubi | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 9 | -4.5 | -1.1 |
| 5033 | Khalil Arnold | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 12 | -4.2 | -1.2 |
| 5037 | Justin Edwards | G | 5-9 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 14 | -3.9 | -1.4 |
| 5048 | Ramondo Battle II | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 15 | -3.9 | -1.4 |
| 5192 | Ryan Archey | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 13 | -5.6 | -1.8 |
| 5220 | Jonathan Dunn | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 16 | -5.6 | -2.2 |
| 5230 | Tekao Carpenter | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 26 | -4.7 | -3.0 |
| 5235 | Kyric Davis | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina Central | 24 | -5.1 | -3.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Georgia #32 | -26.9 | 2% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Longwood #195 | -13.0 | 15% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  VMI #350 | -6.0 | 31% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Liberty #150 | -14.5 | 12% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  George Mason #107 | -16.8 | 8% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Gardner-Webb #361 | -3.0 | 40% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  South Carolina Upstate #268 | +1.0 | 53% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | at |  VCU #44 | -23.8 | 3% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | at |  Drake #104 | -16.6 | 9% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  Iowa State #9 | -30.2 | <1% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  High Point #40 | -24.9 | 2% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  South Carolina #98 | -18.5 | 7% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Norfolk State #300 | conf | -7.3 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Coppin State #364 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Mon Jan 11 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Howard #196 | conf | -9.1 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Delaware State #363 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Mon Jan 25 | at |  Maryland Eastern Shore #356 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  South Carolina State #360 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Norfolk State #300 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Coppin State #364 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | Morgan State #348 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Howard #196 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Delaware State #363 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | Maryland Eastern Shore #356 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at | South Carolina State #360 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
Projected margin is from North Carolina Central's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.