Roster Math

Teams › Big Ten · Compare Maryland with another team

Maryland

Maryland returns 21% of last season's minutes and rates #64 on offense and #77 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +2.5 to +16.9.

+9.7
Rating · #64 of 365
+5.9
Offense · #64
+3.9
Defense · #77
+2.5 to +16.9
80% range
6%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-14
Projected record · 11 to 21 wins
8-12
Projected in Big Ten · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Maryland's preseason projection of +9.7 (No. 64 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.8, more than the +5.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 207 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, less than its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.7. It returns 21% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (31%). The projection leans most on Tomislav Buljan (+4.2), Andre Mills (+3.1) and Bishop Boswell (+2.8); the newcomer who matters most is Tomislav Buljan, a transfer from New Mexico, at +4.2. Its 80% range, +2.5 to +16.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 19% · Transfer 58% · Freshman 19% · Other newcomer 5%

Tomislav Buljan+4.2
Andre Mills+3.1
Bishop Boswell+2.8
Mike McNair+1.9
Baba Oladotun+1.7
D.J. Wagner+1.5
Kaden House+0.2
Maban Jabriel+0.1
Adama Tambedou-0.1
Robert Jennings II-0.2
Lukas Sotell-0.2
Austin Brown-0.2
Alex K'Medehouto-0.3
Guillermo Del Pino-0.4
George Turkson Jr.-0.5
Jordan Williams-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
81Tomislav BuljanF6-91TransferNew Mexico22+7.5+4.2
207Andre MillsG6-41ReturningMaryland24+5.2+3.1
238Bishop BoswellG6-42TransferTennessee21+5.3+2.8
474Baba OladotunF6-100FreshmanHigh school17+3.9+1.7
524Mike McNairF6-51TransferBoston University26+2.9+1.9
579D.J. WagnerG6-43TransferArkansas18+3.2+1.5
1297Kaden HouseG6-30FreshmanHigh school8+0.9+0.2
1463Maban JabrielF6-92TransferQueens University14+0.3+0.1
1929Adama TambedouF6-70FreshmanHigh school7-0.5-0.1
2243Robert Jennings IIF6-74TransferOklahoma State7-0.9-0.2
2569Lukas SotellF6-33Other newcomer4-1.7-0.2
2647Austin BrownF6-80FreshmanHigh school6-1.5-0.2
3241Alex K'MedehoutoF7-00Other newcomer5-2.2-0.3
3865George Turkson Jr.G6-71ReturningMaryland7-2.4-0.5
3971Guillermo Del PinoG6-51ReturningMaryland6-2.8-0.4
4246Jordan WilliamsG6-23TransferRice5-3.5-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsBucknell #313+18.393%
Sat Nov 07atGeorgetown #84-3.838%
Fri Nov 13vsVirginia #19+0.451%
Mon Nov 16vsAlcorn State #358+22.597%
Fri Nov 20vsWagner #291+17.292%
Tue Nov 24NTennessee #13-7.128%
Wed Dec 02vsAmerican University #188+13.687%
Sun Dec 06atOhio State #27conf-7.427%
Wed Dec 09vsMichigan State #6conf-5.333%
Tue Dec 15vsMorgan State #348+21.696%
Sat Dec 19vsSouth Carolina #98+9.377%
Tue Dec 29vsRadford #241+16.290%
Sat Jan 02vsUCLA #28conf-0.648%
Tue Jan 05vsUSC #35conf+0.451%
Sat Jan 09atIowa #33conf-6.729%
Tue Jan 12atIndiana #55conf-4.934%
Sat Jan 16vsIllinois #5conf-5.732%
Tue Jan 19vsRutgers #102conf+6.670%
Sat Jan 23atPurdue #38conf-5.632%
Tue Jan 26vsWisconsin #34conf+0.251%
Sat Jan 30atPenn State #89conf-1.645%
Tue Feb 02atMichigan State #6conf-12.116%
Tue Feb 09vsNebraska #12conf-4.037%
Sat Feb 13vsIndiana #55conf+2.357%
Wed Feb 17atOregon #58conf-3.339%
Sat Feb 20atWashington #92conf-0.449%
Wed Feb 24vsMinnesota #65conf+3.261%
Sun Feb 28atRutgers #102conf+0.451%
Thu Mar 04atMichigan #11conf-10.819%
Sun Mar 07vsNorthwestern #79conf+4.564%

Projected margin is from Maryland's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.