Roster Math

Teams › ACC · Compare Clemson with another team

Clemson

Clemson returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #48 on offense and #37 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +5.2 to +19.9.

+12.7
Rating · #46 of 365
+6.7
Offense · #48
+6.0
Defense · #37
+5.2 to +19.9
80% range
16%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
18-12
Projected record · 13 to 23 wins
10-8
Projected in ACC · 6 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Clemson's preseason projection of +12.7 (No. 46 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +7.3, about the +7.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 34 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.5, about its neighbours' +2.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.8. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.5, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Dylan Faulkner (+4.4), Carter Welling (+2.8) and David Fuchs (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Dylan Faulkner, a transfer from Samford, at +4.4. Its 80% range, +5.2 to +19.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 41% · Transfer 47% · Freshman 11% · Other newcomer 2%

Dylan Faulkner+4.4
Carter Welling+2.8
David Fuchs+1.8
Cole Certa+1.8
Ace Buckner+1.6
Liutauras Lelevicius+1.2
Zac Foster+0.8
Dallas Thomas+0.5
Trent Steinour+0.0
Chase Thompson+0.0
Will Stevens+0.0
Blake Davidson-0.1
Harris Reynolds-0.1
Amare James-0.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
93Dylan FaulknerF6-93TransferSamford25+6.9+4.4
252Carter WellingF6-103ReturningClemson23+4.9+2.8
506David FuchsF6-93TransferSan Francisco22+3.3+1.8
552Ace BucknerG6-31ReturningClemson19+3.2+1.6
568Cole CertaG6-52TransferNotre Dame25+2.8+1.8
763Liutauras LeleviciusG6-72TransferTCU21+2.2+1.2
909Zac FosterG6-41ReturningClemson16+2.0+0.8
997Dallas ThomasF6-91ReturningClemson8+2.2+0.5
1711Chase ThompsonF6-81ReturningClemson10-0.1+0.0
1725Trent SteinourF6-101ReturningClemson5-0.2+0.0
1789Will StevensC6-100FreshmanHigh school7-0.3+0.0
1984Blake DavidsonF6-90Other newcomer3-0.8-0.1
1992Harris ReynoldsG6-40FreshmanHigh school9-0.5-0.1
3344Amare JamesG6-60FreshmanHigh school6-2.1-0.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsStetson #311+19.194%
Fri Nov 06vsAmerican University #188+14.789%
Mon Nov 09vsNorth Dakota #310+19.394%
Fri Nov 13vsGeorgetown #84+9.077%
Mon Nov 16vsThe Citadel #345+20.996%
Mon Nov 23NOle Miss #61+1.755%
Tue Dec 01vsAuburn #16+1.254%
Sun Dec 06vsLe Moyne #217+16.090%
Sat Dec 12atTCU #51-6.131%
Tue Dec 15atSouth Carolina #98-1.545%
Sat Dec 19atCincinnati #42-6.929%
Tue Dec 22vsColgate #197+15.490%
Tue Dec 29vsVirginia #19conf-1.146%
Sat Jan 02atNC State #36conf-3.938%
Tue Jan 05atBoston College #114conf+3.662%
Sat Jan 09vsWake Forest #76conf+5.969%
Tue Jan 12vsGeorgia Tech #140conf+10.781%
Sat Jan 16atPittsburgh #68conf-0.648%
Sat Jan 23vsFlorida State #90conf+7.072%
Wed Jan 27atMiami #18conf-7.128%
Sat Jan 30vsDuke #2conf-6.231%
Tue Feb 02atVirginia Tech #45conf-3.439%
Sat Feb 06vsCalifornia #115conf+9.277%
Wed Feb 10vsSyracuse #71conf+5.467%
Sat Feb 13atFlorida State #90conf+1.254%
Tue Feb 16atGeorgia Tech #140conf+5.567%
Sat Feb 20vsStanford #69conf+5.367%
Tue Feb 23atSMU #53conf-2.442%
Tue Mar 02vsNotre Dame #75conf+5.567%
Sat Mar 06atLouisville #7conf-9.123%

Projected margin is from Clemson's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.