Teams › Horizon · Compare Northern Kentucky with another team
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #265 on offense and #262 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.4 to +2.3.
Why we have them here
Northern Kentucky's preseason projection of -5.0 (No. 270 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.8, less than the -2.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 164 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.2, more than its neighbours' -0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Dan Gherezgher (+0.5), JJ Apathjang (-0.3) and Juanma Ruiz (-0.5); the newcomer who matters most is JJ Apathjang, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -12.4 to +2.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 59% · Transfer 16% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1180 | Dan Gherezgher | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 27 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| 2909 | JJ Apathjang | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3698 | Juanma Ruiz | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.8 | -0.5 | |
| 3788 | Bryce Darbyshire | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 12 | -1.8 | -0.6 |
| 4235 | Ethan Elliott | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 27 | -1.6 | -1.0 |
| 4382 | Donovan Rakotonanahary | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 16 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| 4419 | B.J. Davis-Ray | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | SMU | 12 | -2.6 | -0.8 |
| 4452 | Eric Acker | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | La Salle | 19 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
| 4544 | Ryan Tolliver | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 11 | -2.9 | -0.8 |
| 4708 | Addison Archer | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 11 | -3.3 | -0.9 |
| 5126 | Shawn Nelson | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Northern Kentucky | 14 | -4.6 | -1.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  UTEP #237 | -1.1 | 47% | |
| Wed Nov 04 | at |  South Dakota #322 | -4.0 | 37% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | -22.0 | 4% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Saint Louis #56 | -18.6 | 7% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Central Michigan #259 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | vs |  Georgia Southern #298 | +7.2 | 72% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Bellarmine #305 | +7.1 | 72% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Oakland #159 | conf | -6.4 | 31% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Detroit Mercy #312 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  South Carolina State #360 | +12.6 | 84% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  East Tennessee State #171 | -9.3 | 23% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  Harvard #123 | -9.7 | 22% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  IU Indianapolis #279 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Cleveland State #207 | conf | +0.5 | 51% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Green Bay #281 | conf | -2.0 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Milwaukee #242 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at | IU Indianapolis #279 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  Wright State #165 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Northern Illinois #333 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Detroit Mercy #312 | conf | +4.6 | 64% |
| Fri Jan 29 | at |  Purdue Fort Wayne #212 | conf | -5.0 | 35% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at | Cleveland State #207 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Youngstown State #215 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Sun Feb 07 | at | Northern Illinois #333 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Milwaukee #242 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Green Bay #281 | conf | +3.0 | 59% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at |  Robert Morris #113 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Wright State #165 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Oakland #159 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Purdue Fort Wayne #212 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
Projected margin is from Northern Kentucky's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.