Roster Math

Teams › Big South · Compare Charleston Southern with another team

Charleston Southern

Charleston Southern returns 73% of last season's minutes and rates #238 on offense and #292 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.4 to +2.0.

-5.2
Rating · #276 of 365
-2.0
Offense · #238
-3.2
Defense · #292
-12.4 to +2.0
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-17
Projected record · 7 to 17 wins
7-9
Projected in Big South · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Charleston Southern's preseason projection of -5.2 (No. 276 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.9, about the -3.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 233 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, about its neighbours' -0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.0. It returns 73% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Luke Williams (+1.1), Jesse Hafemeister (+0.4) and Devin Brafford (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Jackson Crawford, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -12.4 to +2.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 70% · Transfer 6% · Other newcomer 24%

Luke Williams+1.1
Jesse Hafemeister+0.4
Devin Brafford+0.0
Jackson Crawford-0.2
Tito Deng-0.2
Kaleb Lofton-0.2
Anthony Ruffolo-0.2
Mathok Majok-0.2
Alex Harper-0.3
DJ Hubbard-0.3
Trent Coleman-0.3
Riley Brooks-0.3
AJ Gladieux-0.3
Anthony Gause-0.3
Marquise Leslie-0.3
Lase Olalere-0.4
Nicholas Errica-0.4
Jefferson McLamb-0.4
Jaquias Franklin-0.4
Armari Carraway-0.9
Jacob Taylor-1.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
832Luke WilliamsG6-01ReturningCharleston Southern25+1.8+1.1
1270Jesse HafemeisterF6-51ReturningCharleston Southern23+0.6+0.4
1722Devin BraffordF7-12ReturningCharleston Southern10-0.1+0.0
2619Trent ColemanF6-72ReturningCharleston Southern11-1.1-0.3
2641Jackson CrawfordF5-110Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2713Anthony RuffoloF6-00Other newcomer5-1.6-0.2
2713Kaleb LoftonF6-03Other newcomer5-1.6-0.2
2780Lase OlalereF6-102ReturningCharleston Southern15-1.0-0.4
2815Mathok MajokC7-43TransferNew Orleans5-1.7-0.2
2947Jaquias FranklinG6-11ReturningCharleston Southern15-1.1-0.4
2952DJ HubbardF6-30Other newcomer6-1.8-0.3
2952Alex HarperF6-30Other newcomer6-1.8-0.3
3098Tito DengF7-03TransferJacksonville3-2.7-0.2
3120Riley BrooksF6-50Other newcomer6-1.9-0.3
3316Marquise LeslieF6-70Other newcomer6-2.0-0.3
3422AJ GladieuxG6-21ReturningCharleston Southern5-2.4-0.3
3454Anthony GauseG6-32ReturningCharleston Southern5-2.4-0.3
3582Jefferson McLambG6-51Other newcomer7-2.2-0.4
4158Nicholas ErricaF6-51TransferWestern Michigan4-3.8-0.4
4482Armari CarrawayG6-01ReturningCharleston Southern14-2.5-0.9
5010Jacob TaylorG6-31ReturningCharleston Southern17-3.5-1.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atSouth Florida #83-16.99%
Tue Nov 10atWake Forest #76-16.99%
Sat Nov 14vsWest Georgia #295+6.770%
Wed Nov 18vsWofford #306+6.971%
Sat Nov 21atMercer #231-7.727%
Tue Nov 24atJames Madison #147-10.620%
Fri Nov 27atEast Tennessee State #171-9.622%
Sat Nov 28NMorehead State #265-0.349%
Tue Dec 01vsThe Citadel #345+9.678%
Sat Dec 05atSouth Carolina State #360+0.551%
Wed Dec 16atNorth Florida #321-3.240%
Tue Dec 22atIU Indianapolis #279-6.331%
Mon Dec 28atOld Dominion #297-4.636%
Fri Jan 01atLongwood #195conf-5.134%
Sun Jan 03atRadford #241conf-3.738%
Wed Jan 06vsGardner-Webb #361conf+9.477%
Sat Jan 09atUNC Asheville #245conf-3.938%
Wed Jan 13vsSouth Carolina Upstate #268conf+2.157%
Sat Jan 16vsHigh Point #40conf-11.917%
Sat Jan 23atWinthrop #177conf-6.031%
Thu Jan 28vsPresbyterian #243conf+1.053%
Sat Jan 30vsLongwood #195conf-0.548%
Wed Feb 03atGardner-Webb #361conf+5.567%
Sat Feb 06atHigh Point #40conf-17.98%
Thu Feb 11vsWinthrop #177conf-1.246%
Sat Feb 13vsRadford #241conf+1.153%
Thu Feb 18atSouth Carolina Upstate #268conf-2.442%
Thu Feb 25vsUNC Asheville #245conf+1.153%
Sat Feb 27atPresbyterian #243conf-3.539%

Projected margin is from Charleston Southern's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.