Roster Math

Teams › MEAC · Compare Maryland Eastern Shore with another team

Maryland Eastern Shore

Maryland Eastern Shore returns 81% of last season's minutes and rates #362 on offense and #297 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -20.4 to -5.8.

-13.1
Rating · #356 of 365
-9.8
Offense · #362
-3.3
Defense · #297
-20.4 to -5.8
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
9-20
Projected record · 5 to 14 wins
7-7
Projected in MEAC · 4 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

Maryland Eastern Shore's preseason projection of -13.1 (No. 356 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.4, more than the -7.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 344 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.8, about its neighbours' -2.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -4.2. It returns 81% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (79%). The projection leans most on Zion Obanla (+1.9), Joseph Locandro (+0.1) and Devin Thomas (-0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Devin Thomas, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.7. Its 80% range, -20.4 to -5.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 75% · Other newcomer 6%

Zion Obanla+1.9
Joseph Locandro+0.1
Devin Thomas-0.7
Maurio Hanson Jr.-0.9
Jaden Johnson-1.0
Trey Brown-1.1
Javoy Thompson-1.2
Maurice Vassel-1.3
Christopher Flippin-1.4
Levi Beckwith-1.9
Michael Teal-2.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
495Zion ObanlaG6-81ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore23+3.3+1.9
1438Joseph LocandroF6-91ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore20+0.3+0.1
4277Devin ThomasF6-00Other newcomer12-2.4-0.7
4605Maurio Hanson Jr.F6-72ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore11-3.0-0.9
4662Trey BrownG6-71ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore16-2.6-1.1
4908Jaden JohnsonG5-101ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore9-4.1-1.0
5034Christopher FlippinF6-82ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore14-3.9-1.4
5088Javoy ThompsonG6-72ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore10-5.1-1.2
5120Maurice VasselF6-92ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore9-5.6-1.3
5173Levi BeckwithF6-71ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore16-4.8-1.9
5208Michael TealG6-13ReturningMaryland Eastern Shore22-4.6-2.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atWake Forest #76-20.65%
Wed Nov 04atHigh Point #40-24.72%
Tue Nov 10atBoston College #114-16.39%
Thu Nov 12atRhode Island #148-15.310%
Tue Nov 17atDePaul #97-17.77%
Sun Nov 22NIU Indianapolis #279-5.633%
Mon Nov 23atYoungstown State #215-12.515%
Sun Nov 29atLongwood #195-13.114%
Wed Dec 02atStony Brook #283-10.320%
Sat Dec 05vsNorth Carolina A&T #285+1.154%
Thu Dec 10atVirginia Tech #45-23.93%
Sun Dec 13vsAmerican University #188-2.143%
Wed Dec 16atSaint Joseph's #129-15.710%
Sat Dec 19atHampton #288-10.619%
Tue Dec 22atLiberty #150-14.512%
Sat Jan 02atMorgan State #348conf-4.237%
Sat Jan 09atHoward #196conf-9.322%
Mon Jan 11vsNorfolk State #300conf-1.446%
Sat Jan 16atCoppin State #364conf+0.351%
Sat Jan 23vsSouth Carolina State #360conf+3.862%
Mon Jan 25vsNorth Carolina Central #353conf+2.558%
Sat Jan 30vsDelaware State #363conf+5.367%
Sat Feb 06vsMorgan State #348conf+2.056%
Sat Feb 13vsHoward #196conf-4.835%
Mon Feb 15atNorfolk State #300conf-7.527%
Sat Feb 20vsCoppin State #364conf+5.768%
Sat Feb 27atSouth Carolina State #360conf-1.944%
Mon Mar 01atNorth Carolina Central #353conf-3.339%
Thu Mar 04atDelaware State #363conf+0.251%

Projected margin is from Maryland Eastern Shore's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.