Teams › Sun Belt · Compare Troy with another team
Troy
Troy returns 54% of last season's minutes and rates #169 on offense and #151 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.6 to +8.1.
Why we have them here
Troy's preseason projection of +0.7 (No. 155 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.2, less than the +0.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 110 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.8, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.8. It returns 54% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (55%). The projection leans most on Jerrell Bellamy (+1.5), Jacoi Hutchinson (+1.3) and Sam Walters (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Jacoi Hutchinson, a transfer from Longwood, at +1.3. Its 80% range, -6.6 to +8.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 50% · Transfer 42% · Other newcomer 8%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 575 | Jerrell Bellamy | C | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Troy | 20 | +3.1 | +1.5 |
| 768 | Jacoi Hutchinson | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Longwood | 25 | +2.0 | +1.3 |
| 1665 | Sam Walters | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | SMU | 13 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1997 | Caden Diggs | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | UMBC | 23 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2499 | Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.1 | -0.2 | |
| 2651 | Evan Griffin | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Troy | 11 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| 2666 | Jayme Kontuniemi | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -1.3 | -0.3 | |
| 2675 | Javen Colbert | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Troy | 12 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 3181 | Emmanuel Clarton | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Troy | 9 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3709 | Kerrington Kiel | F | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Troy | 17 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 3755 | Hikaru Awata | G | 5-7 | 1 | Returning | Troy | 7 | -2.4 | -0.4 |
| 4107 | Kameryn Mitchell | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Troy | 8 | -2.7 | -0.5 |
| 4393 | Austin Cross | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Troy | 17 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| 4433 | Robert Davis Jr. | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Old Dominion | 23 | -1.9 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Massachusetts #178 | +7.3 | 72% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Florida State #90 | -10.7 | 19% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Loyola Marymount #170 | +6.8 | 71% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  NC State #36 | -15.9 | 10% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Valparaiso #172 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Nicholls #267 | +4.0 | 62% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Chattanooga #226 | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Furman #110 | +3.8 | 62% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  UAB #158 | +6.3 | 69% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Louisiana Tech #269 | +9.7 | 79% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  App State #229 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  James Madison #147 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Georgia State #260 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Southern Miss #214 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  UL Monroe #359 | conf | +13.8 | 87% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at | Louisiana Tech #269 | -1.4 | 45% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Louisiana #294 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Arkansas State #134 | conf | +2.0 | 56% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | UL Monroe #359 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | Louisiana #294 | conf | +7.6 | 73% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Arkansas State #134 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | South Alabama #228 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Southern Miss #214 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at |  Marshall #247 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Troy's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.