Roster Math

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Southern Miss

Southern Miss returns 69% of last season's minutes and rates #245 on offense and #178 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.4 to +5.2.

-2.2
Rating · #214 of 365
-2.3
Offense · #245
+0.1
Defense · #178
-9.4 to +5.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-15
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
9-7
Projected in Sun Belt · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Southern Miss's preseason projection of -2.2 (No. 214 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.2, more than the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 225 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.7. It returns 69% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Djahi Binet (+2.8), Isaac Taveras (+1.8) and Cameron Wallace (+0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Cameron Wallace, a transfer from Little Rock, at +0.3. Its 80% range, -9.4 to +5.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 64% · Transfer 28% · Other newcomer 8%

Djahi Binet+2.8
Isaac Taveras+1.8
Cameron Wallace+0.3
Marcus Overstreet-0.2
Jett Montgomery-0.2
Chiante' Tramble-0.3
EJ Paymon-0.3
Mike Montano-0.3
Chandler Watts-0.3
Dalyn Brandon-0.3
Israel Hart-0.5
Dylan Brumfield-0.8
Brewer Carruth-1.1
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt-1.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
275Djahi BinetF6-73ReturningSouthern Miss25+4.5+2.8
521Isaac TaverasG6-63ReturningSouthern Miss22+3.2+1.8
1300Cameron WallaceF6-81TransferLittle Rock26+0.5+0.3
2120Marcus OverstreetF6-92TransferSan José State10-0.6-0.2
2403Chiante' TrambleG6-21ReturningSouthern Miss14-0.8-0.3
2562Jett MontgomeryF5-112Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2935Israel HartG6-31ReturningSouthern Miss19-1.0-0.5
2988EJ PaymonF6-91ReturningSouthern Miss6-1.8-0.3
3032Mike MontanoF1Other newcomer6-1.9-0.3
3108Dalyn BrandonG6-51ReturningSouthern Miss8-1.7-0.3
3120Chandler WattsF6-60Other newcomer6-1.9-0.3
3691Dylan BrumfieldG6-53ReturningSouthern Miss25-1.2-0.8
4713Jalyke Gaines-WyattG6-03TransferHampton20-2.4-1.2
5086Brewer CarruthG6-42ReturningSouthern Miss8-5.5-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06atIowa State #9-23.83%
Wed Nov 11vsJackson State #355+13.786%
Fri Nov 13atTexas State #183-7.128%
Tue Nov 17vsUT Arlington #211+5.567%
Thu Nov 19atGrambling #302-1.545%
Sat Nov 21NNicholls #267+1.956%
Sun Nov 22NValparaiso #172-1.346%
Sun Nov 29vsGrambling #302+8.976%
Wed Dec 02vsTulane #250+6.871%
Sat Dec 05atOregon State #93-12.815%
Thu Dec 10atMcNeese #80-13.414%
Sat Dec 19vsJames Madison #147conf+0.251%
Tue Dec 22NOle Miss #61-8.624%
Thu Dec 31atGeorgia State #260conf-1.146%
Sat Jan 02atGeorgia Southern #298conf+0.953%
Thu Jan 07vsCoastal Carolina #301conf+5.768%
Sat Jan 09vsOld Dominion #297conf+5.768%
Wed Jan 13vsTroy #155conf+0.552%
Sat Jan 16atArkansas State #134conf-6.231%
Wed Jan 20vsUL Monroe #359conf+11.382%
Sat Jan 23atSouth Alabama #228conf-1.645%
Thu Jan 28atLouisiana Tech #269-3.339%
Sat Jan 30vsLouisiana #294conf+5.367%
Sat Feb 06atApp State #229conf-2.143%
Thu Feb 11vsLouisiana Tech #269+7.473%
Sat Feb 13atLouisiana #294conf+0.853%
Wed Feb 17atUL Monroe #359conf+6.269%
Sat Feb 20atTroy #155conf-5.034%
Wed Feb 24vsArkansas State #134conf-0.548%
Fri Feb 26vsSouth Alabama #228conf+2.959%

Projected margin is from Southern Miss's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.