Roster Math

Teams › Am. East · Compare Vermont with another team

Vermont

Vermont returns 67% of last season's minutes and rates #223 on offense and #199 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.0 to +5.5.

-1.7
Rating · #202 of 365
-1.6
Offense · #223
-0.2
Defense · #199
-9.0 to +5.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-14
Projected record · 11 to 21 wins
10-6
Projected in Am. East · 7 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Vermont's preseason projection of -1.7 (No. 202 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.9, about the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 197 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.2, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.0. It returns 67% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Gus Yalden (+3.8), Momo Nkugwa (+0.2) and John Broom (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is John Broom, a transfer from South Alabama, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -9.0 to +5.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 67% · Transfer 33%

Gus Yalden+3.8
Momo Nkugwa+0.2
John Broom-0.1
Ben Wesson-0.3
Drew Bessette-0.3
Noah Barnett-0.4
Sincere Clemons-0.5
David Simon-0.5
Khalil Badru-0.5
Lucas Mari-0.6
Daniil Glazkov-0.6
Jackson Skipper-0.8
Darrel Yepdo-1.5
Ben Michaels-1.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
133Gus YaldenF6-92ReturningVermont25+6.1+3.8
1354Momo NkugwaG6-31ReturningVermont15+0.6+0.2
1794John BroomG6-52TransferSouth Alabama17-0.2-0.1
2760Ben WessonG6-41ReturningVermont7-1.4-0.3
2803Noah BarnettF6-92ReturningVermont21-0.8-0.4
3287Drew BessetteF6-81ReturningVermont7-1.9-0.3
3419Lucas MariG6-61ReturningVermont18-1.3-0.6
3603Khalil BadruG6-52TransferIona12-1.7-0.5
3613David SimonF6-113ReturningVermont12-1.7-0.5
3943Daniil GlazkovG6-62TransferLoyola Chicago13-1.9-0.6
4155Sincere ClemonsG6-21ReturningVermont6-3.1-0.5
4641Jackson SkipperF6-73ReturningVermont10-3.2-0.8
4840Darrel YepdoG6-01TransferUMass Lowell24-2.4-1.5
5168Ben MichaelsF6-82ReturningVermont12-5.5-1.6

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atIona #282-2.941%
Thu Nov 05atFairfield #248-3.738%
Sun Nov 08vsQuinnipiac #200+5.668%
Wed Nov 18atYale #95-10.819%
Sat Nov 21vsBrown #184+4.865%
Tue Nov 24atSiena #208-4.735%
Fri Nov 27NMerrimack #176-0.847%
Sat Nov 28NColgate #197-0.150%
Sun Nov 29atHofstra #124-8.325%
Thu Dec 03vsPrinceton #164+4.063%
Sun Dec 06atFlorida #1-29.1<1%
Thu Dec 10atMerrimack #176-5.533%
Sun Dec 13vsNortheastern #296+8.977%
Sun Dec 20atRobert Morris #113-8.724%
Sat Jan 02atBinghamton #330conf+2.458%
Thu Jan 07vsUMass Lowell #287conf+5.367%
Thu Jan 14atNew Hampshire #335conf+2.859%
Mon Jan 18vsBryant #327conf+6.871%
Thu Jan 21atUMBC #180conf-1.844%
Sat Jan 23atNJIT #347conf+4.665%
Thu Jan 28atMaine #318conf+2.257%
Sat Jan 30vsUAlbany #293conf+5.567%
Thu Feb 04vsNew Hampshire #335conf+7.773%
Sat Feb 06atBryant #327conf+1.555%
Thu Feb 11vsBinghamton #330conf+7.172%
Sat Feb 13atUAlbany #293conf+0.953%
Thu Feb 18vsUMBC #180conf+1.756%
Sat Feb 20vsNJIT #347conf+8.977%
Sat Feb 27atUMass Lowell #287conf-0.150%
Tue Mar 02vsMaine #318conf+6.671%

Projected margin is from Vermont's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.