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American University
American University returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #196 on offense and #192 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.2 to +6.3.
Why we have them here
American University's preseason projection of -1.0 (No. 188 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.1, more than the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 220 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' +0.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.7. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (67%). The projection leans most on Madden Collins (+2.4), Julen Iturbe (+1.6) and Greg Jones (+0.9); the newcomer who matters most is Shane O'Reilly, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -8.2 to +6.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 86% · Other newcomer 14%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 331 | Madden Collins | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | American University | 22 | +4.5 | +2.4 |
| 609 | Julen Iturbe | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | American University | 23 | +2.7 | +1.6 |
| 963 | Kade Sebastian | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | American University | 21 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| 970 | Greg Jones | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | American University | 27 | +1.4 | +0.9 |
| 2443 | Carson McDonald | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | American University | 10 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2822 | Shane O'Reilly | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2822 | Kamran Prince | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 3056 | Gibraltar Coleman | F | 6-6 | 3 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.9 | -0.3 | |
| 3056 | Noah Jones | F | 6-6 | 3 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.9 | -0.3 | |
| 3301 | Luke Brown | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | American University | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| 3340 | Eric Michaels | F | 6-9 | 2 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.1 | -0.3 | |
| 3353 | Jack Anderson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | American University | 4 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| 3582 | Matthew Casey | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | American University | 4 | -2.9 | -0.3 |
| 4161 | Dean Hogans | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | American University | 7 | -3.0 | -0.5 |
| 4349 | Matt Mayock | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | American University | 22 | -1.8 | -1.0 |
| 4502 | Wyatt Nausadis | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | American University | 18 | -2.2 | -1.0 |
| 5129 | Chris Eagan | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | American University | 7 | -6.3 | -1.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | -16.4 | 9% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Clemson #46 | -14.7 | 11% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Drexel #254 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Harvard #123 | +2.9 | 59% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | vs |  Towson #193 | +5.6 | 68% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Radford #241 | +7.7 | 73% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  UMass Lowell #287 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Hampton #288 | +8.9 | 77% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Maryland #64 | -13.6 | 13% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  UCF #70 | -13.3 | 14% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  George Washington #119 | -9.0 | 23% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  Maryland Eastern Shore #356 | +2.1 | 57% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Pennsylvania #144 | -7.0 | 29% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Lehigh #256 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Holy Cross #352 | conf | +10.0 | 79% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Colgate #197 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Lafayette #342 | conf | +8.5 | 76% |
| Mon Jan 11 | at |  Loyola Maryland #344 | conf | +5.6 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Boston University #230 | conf | -1.1 | 47% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Navy #174 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Lafayette #342 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Bucknell #313 | conf | +7.2 | 72% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Boston University #230 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Army #314 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Loyola Maryland #344 | conf | +9.3 | 77% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs | Lehigh #256 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Navy #174 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Army #314 | conf | +7.3 | 72% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | Colgate #197 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Bucknell #313 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Holy Cross #352 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
Projected margin is from American University's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.