Roster Math

Teams › Patriot · Compare Army with another team

Army

Army returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #304 on offense and #311 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.2 to -0.7.

-7.8
Rating · #314 of 365
-4.1
Offense · #304
-3.7
Defense · #311
-15.2 to -0.7
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-18
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
8-10
Projected in Patriot · 4 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Army's preseason projection of -7.8 (No. 314 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.1, about the -5.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 338 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.3, about its neighbours' -1.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (71%). The projection leans most on Ryan Curry (+1.0), Tate Laczkowski (+0.3) and Joshua Eli (-0.2). Its 80% range, -15.2 to -0.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 100%

Ryan Curry+1.0
Tate Laczkowski+0.3
Joshua Eli-0.2
Brendon O'Keefe-0.5
Jahaan Green-0.6
Jackson Mayo-0.7
Nnaemeka Ikechi-0.7
Dylan Murans-0.7
Dylan Benner-0.8
Alex Engro-0.8
Dillon Watt-0.9
Dayon Polk-1.0
Jacen Holloway-1.4
Kevin McCarthy-1.4
Jackson Furman-1.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
914Ryan CurryG6-03ReturningArmy28+1.5+1.0
1265Tate LaczkowskiF6-83ReturningArmy21+0.7+0.3
2080Joshua EliF6-62ReturningArmy17-0.4-0.2
3831Brendon O'KeefeG5-102ReturningArmy9-2.2-0.5
4427Jackson MayoG6-03ReturningArmy9-3.1-0.7
4548Nnaemeka IkechiF6-72ReturningArmy7-3.6-0.7
4566Jahaan GreenG6-51ReturningArmy6-3.9-0.6
4616Alex EngroG6-22ReturningArmy9-3.4-0.8
4677Dylan BennerF6-71ReturningArmy8-3.7-0.8
4742Dylan MuransF6-72ReturningArmy6-4.4-0.7
4794Jacen HollowayF6-42ReturningArmy23-2.4-1.4
4901Kevin McCarthyG6-42ReturningArmy20-2.8-1.4
4921Dillon WattG5-111ReturningArmy7-4.7-0.9
5006Jackson FurmanG6-31ReturningArmy20-3.2-1.6
5015Dayon PolkG6-02ReturningArmy8-4.9-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atDuke #2-29.7<1%
Tue Nov 10atNew Haven #326-3.937%
Sat Nov 14vsSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130-3.240%
Tue Nov 17vsMarist #205-0.150%
Sat Nov 21atBinghamton #330-4.735%
Tue Nov 24NAir Force #357+3.962%
Thu Nov 26atUTSA #284-6.331%
Sat Nov 28vsRider #351+6.871%
Wed Dec 02vsUMBC #180-1.047%
Sat Dec 05atUAlbany #293-6.231%
Fri Dec 11atColumbia #169-10.819%
Sun Dec 20atRutgers #102-14.812%
Wed Dec 30atHoly Cross #352conf+1.254%
Sat Jan 02atLoyola Maryland #344conf+0.953%
Wed Jan 06vsLehigh #256conf-1.745%
Sat Jan 09atColgate #197conf-6.929%
Wed Jan 13vsBucknell #313conf+0.953%
Sun Jan 17vsLafayette #342conf+2.357%
Wed Jan 20atLehigh #256conf-4.536%
Sat Jan 23vsNavy #174conf-4.237%
Wed Jan 27vsHoly Cross #352conf+3.962%
Sat Jan 30atBucknell #313conf-1.645%
Wed Feb 03vsAmerican University #188conf-3.838%
Sat Feb 06vsBoston University #230conf-2.442%
Wed Feb 10atLafayette #342conf+0.251%
Sat Feb 13vsColgate #197conf-3.539%
Wed Feb 17atAmerican University #188conf-7.328%
Sat Feb 20atNavy #174conf-7.427%
Wed Feb 24vsLoyola Maryland #344conf+2.859%
Sat Feb 27atBoston University #230conf-5.732%

Projected margin is from Army's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.