Teams › Ivy · Compare Pennsylvania with another team
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania returns 85% of last season's minutes and rates #216 on offense and #98 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.0 to +8.5.
Why we have them here
Pennsylvania's preseason projection of +1.3 (No. 144 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.6, more than the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 147 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.3, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 85% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on TJ Power (+4.1), AJ Levine (+1.2) and Dalton Scantlebury (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Ryan Altman, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -6.0 to +8.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 79% · Transfer 8% · Freshman 8% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | TJ Power | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 31 | +5.2 | +4.1 |
| 783 | AJ Levine | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 24 | +2.0 | +1.2 |
| 969 | Dalton Scantlebury | C | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 17 | +1.7 | +0.7 |
| 1166 | Jay Jones | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 17 | +1.0 | +0.4 |
| 1701 | Augustus Gerhart | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 21 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1788 | Lucas Lueth | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 17 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2483 | William Kruse | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 6 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
| 2728 | Ryan Altman | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.6 | -0.2 | |
| 2855 | Bradyn Foster | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| 2933 | Isaiah Carroll | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 2978 | Chris Ubochi | F | 6-9 | 3 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |
| 3107 | Payton Kamin | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 5 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| 3565 | Alex Massung | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 6 | -2.3 | -0.4 |
| 3713 | Ethan Lin | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -2.4 | -0.4 |
| 4066 | Niklas Polonowski | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Pennsylvania | 7 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 4223 | Sir Mohammed | G | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Notre Dame | 15 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Illinois #5 | -21.8 | 4% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Howard #196 | +7.6 | 73% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Navy #174 | -4.3 | 36% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Saint Joseph's #129 | -6.5 | 30% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  La Salle #218 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Drexel #254 | +8.9 | 76% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Towson #193 | +7.1 | 72% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Bucknell #313 | +11.9 | 83% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | at |  Lafayette #342 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Monmouth #216 | +8.0 | 74% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  American University #188 | +7.0 | 71% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Michigan State #6 | -21.5 | 4% | |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Princeton #164 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Fri Jan 08 | at |  Brown #184 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Harvard #123 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Dartmouth #290 | conf | +7.8 | 73% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Yale #95 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Fri Jan 29 | vs |  Cornell #109 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Columbia #169 | conf | +3.4 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Princeton #164 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Fri Feb 12 | at | Cornell #109 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Columbia #169 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Yale #95 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | Harvard #123 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Dartmouth #290 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Fri Mar 05 | vs | Brown #184 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
Projected margin is from Pennsylvania's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.