Roster Math

Teams › Ivy · Compare Harvard with another team

Harvard

Harvard returns 96% of last season's minutes and rates #132 on offense and #125 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.5 to +10.1.

+2.8
Rating · #123 of 365
+1.4
Offense · #132
+1.4
Defense · #125
-4.5 to +10.1
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-12
Projected record · 9 to 18 wins
8-6
Projected in Ivy · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Harvard's preseason projection of +2.8 (No. 123 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.8, more than the +1.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 121 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 96% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (59%). The projection leans most on Tey Barbour (+4.0), Thomas Batties III (+3.1) and Robert Hinton (+2.6); the newcomer who matters most is Alex Touomou, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -4.5 to +10.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 93% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 3%

Tey Barbour+4.0
Thomas Batties III+3.1
Robert Hinton+2.6
Austin Hunt+0.5
Frankie Mannino-0.1
Payton Pitts-0.2
Avner Dror-0.2
Alex Touomou-0.2
Jason Singleton-0.2
Ryan Sullivan-0.3
Joseph Quartey-0.3
Dutch Dowdell-0.3
Luca Ace-Nasteski-0.3
Kenan Parrish-0.3
Xavier Nesbitt-0.5
Ben Eisendrath-1.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
153Tey BarbourG6-42ReturningHarvard30+5.3+4.0
269Thomas Batties IIIF6-73ReturningHarvard29+4.2+3.1
391Robert HintonG6-52ReturningHarvard30+3.4+2.6
1122Austin HuntG6-42ReturningHarvard19+1.1+0.5
1878Frankie ManninoG6-51ReturningHarvard10-0.3-0.1
2535Ryan SullivanF6-91ReturningHarvard10-1.0-0.3
2599Jason SingletonG6-40FreshmanHigh school8-1.2-0.2
2672Alex TouomouF6-70Other newcomer6-1.5-0.2
2862Avner DrorF6-91ReturningHarvard4-2.0-0.2
2882Payton PittsG6-23ReturningHarvard4-2.1-0.2
3220Dutch DowdellG6-62ReturningHarvard5-2.2-0.3
3255Kenan ParrishF7-01ReturningHarvard7-1.9-0.3
3306Luca Ace-NasteskiF6-103ReturningHarvard6-2.0-0.3
3393Joseph QuarteyG6-21ReturningHarvard4-2.5-0.3
4139Xavier NesbittG5-113ReturningHarvard6-3.2-0.5
5057Ben EisendrathG6-22ReturningHarvard23-3.2-1.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 10atNortheastern #296+1.655%
Fri Nov 13atGeorge Washington #119-6.131%
Sun Nov 15atAmerican University #188-2.941%
Wed Nov 18vsBoston College #114+3.762%
Fri Nov 20atHoly Cross #352+5.066%
Tue Nov 24vsBoston University #230+7.774%
Sat Nov 28vsFordham #125+4.063%
Wed Dec 02atNew Hampshire #335+2.859%
Fri Dec 04atDuke #2-21.24%
Sun Dec 20vsNorthern Kentucky #270+9.778%
Tue Dec 22atSaint Mary's #60-10.619%
Tue Dec 29atBryant #327+1.555%
Mon Jan 04atDartmouth #290conf+3.561%
Sat Jan 09vsColumbia #169conf+3.160%
Sat Jan 16atPennsylvania #144conf-1.246%
Mon Jan 18atPrinceton #164conf-0.548%
Sat Jan 23atCornell #109conf-2.542%
Fri Jan 29vsYale #95conf-0.947%
Sat Jan 30vsBrown #184conf+3.661%
Sat Feb 06vsDartmouth #290conf+7.372%
Fri Feb 12atYale #95conf-4.835%
Sat Feb 13atBrown #184conf+0.652%
Sat Feb 20vsCornell #109conf+0.552%
Fri Feb 26vsPennsylvania #144conf+2.357%
Sat Feb 27vsPrinceton #164conf+2.859%
Fri Mar 05atColumbia #169conf-0.449%

Projected margin is from Harvard's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.