Teams › Big 12 · Compare UCF with another team
UCF
UCF returns 21% of last season's minutes and rates #61 on offense and #87 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +1.6 to +16.4.
Why we have them here
UCF's preseason projection of +9.0 (No. 70 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.5, more than the +5.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 71 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.7, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.3. It returns 21% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Dior Johnson (+4.0), Lewis Walker (+2.9) and John Bol (+1.9); the newcomer who matters most is Dior Johnson, a transfer from Tarleton State, at +4.0. Its 80% range, +1.6 to +16.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 19% · Transfer 71% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | Dior Johnson | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Tarleton State | 24 | +6.8 | +4.0 |
| 294 | Lewis Walker | F | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | North Carolina A&T | 28 | +4.1 | +2.9 |
| 444 | John Bol | C | 7-2 | 2 | Returning | UCF | 20 | +3.9 | +1.9 |
| 558 | Isaiah Malone | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Florida Gulf Coast | 23 | +3.0 | +1.7 |
| 650 | Cayden Vasko | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Wofford | 28 | +2.4 | +1.7 |
| 1040 | Jason Asemota | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Boston College | 9 | +1.9 | +0.4 |
| 1179 | Churchill Abass | C | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | New Orleans | 18 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| 1492 | Mister Dean | G | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Charleston | 12 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1667 | Carmelo Pacheco | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | UCF | 15 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1869 | Ladarius Givan | C | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2091 | Tanner Jones | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 2337 | Arturo Dean | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.3 | -0.1 | ||
| 2400 | Zach Johnson | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | UCF | 4 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | +17.5 | 92% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Yale #95 | +8.2 | 75% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Georgia Southern #298 | +18.0 | 92% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Mississippi State #78 | +7.2 | 72% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | -11.7 | 17% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Boston College #114 | +3.9 | 62% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Georgia #32 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Jacksonville #253 | +14.9 | 89% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  American University #188 | +13.3 | 86% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Indiana #55 | -8.8 | 24% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Florida International #143 | +12.5 | 84% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Virginia Tech #45 | +3.8 | 62% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Towson #193 | +13.1 | 86% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Utah #72 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Arizona #3 | conf | -15.6 | 11% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Arizona State #52 | conf | -5.2 | 34% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Baylor #37 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Kansas #10 | conf | -13.9 | 13% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Colorado #85 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Iowa State #9 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -11.3 | 18% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  West Virginia #48 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Baylor #37 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  Houston #8 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | West Virginia #48 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Texas Tech #15 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | -3.3 | 39% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at |  TCU #51 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
Projected margin is from UCF's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.