Teams › Big 12 · Compare Texas Tech with another team
Texas Tech
Texas Tech returns 34% of last season's minutes and rates #7 on offense and #18 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +12.5 to +27.3.
Why we have them here
Texas Tech's preseason projection of +19.9 (No. 15 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +11.3, about the +10.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 21 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.5, about its neighbours' +3.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.1. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.0, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 34% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on JT Toppin (+6.6), Donovan Atwell (+3.4) and Cruz Davis (+3.0); the newcomer who matters most is Cruz Davis, a transfer from Hofstra, at +3.0. Its 80% range, +12.5 to +27.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 33% · Transfer 57% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | JT Toppin | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Texas Tech | 27 | +9.7 | +6.6 |
| 185 | Donovan Atwell | G | 6-5 | 4 | Returning | Texas Tech | 26 | +5.2 | +3.4 |
| 216 | Jamichael Stillwell | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | UCF | 23 | +5.3 | +3.0 |
| 274 | Cruz Davis | G | 6-3 | 4 | Transfer | Hofstra | 29 | +4.2 | +3.0 |
| 415 | Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | UNLV | 24 | +3.7 | +2.3 |
| 416 | Darrion Williams | F | 6-6 | 4 | Transfer | NC State | 22 | +3.9 | +2.1 |
| 586 | Damarion Dennis | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | Wyoming | 17 | +3.3 | +1.4 |
| 1181 | DaKari Spear | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +1.4 | +0.3 |
| 1186 | Josiah Moseley | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Texas Tech | 9 | +1.3 | +0.3 |
| 1730 | Trey Hall | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1796 | Bassala Bagayoko | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1856 | LaTrell Hoover | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.7 | +0.0 | |
| 1929 | Marial Akuentok | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Texas Tech | 5 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2360 | Amari Barrett | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +29.8 | >99% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | +22.3 | 96% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Illinois #5 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Stonehill #354 | +28.7 | >99% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  New Orleans #303 | +25.5 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Louisville #7 | -1.7 | 45% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Omaha #274 | +23.4 | 97% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | N |  USC #35 | +4.0 | 63% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +24.4 | 98% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | N |  Duke #2 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +37.8 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Baylor #37 | conf | +7.8 | 74% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  TCU #51 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Arizona State #52 | conf | +9.3 | 77% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Iowa State #9 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Houston #8 | conf | -6.2 | 30% |
| Fri Jan 22 | vs |  Arizona #3 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  UCF #70 | conf | +11.3 | 82% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  Colorado #85 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Kansas #10 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  West Virginia #48 | conf | +8.4 | 75% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Houston #8 | conf | +2.0 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | UCF #70 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +7.8 | 74% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Cincinnati #42 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Utah #72 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Fri Mar 05 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
Projected margin is from Texas Tech's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.