Teams › ASUN · Compare Florida Gulf Coast with another team
Florida Gulf Coast
Florida Gulf Coast returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #287 on offense and #289 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.1 to +0.8.
Why we have them here
Florida Gulf Coast's preseason projection of -6.6 (No. 299 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.4, less than the -4.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 248 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.7, about its neighbours' -1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Gabe Tanner (-0.5), Justin Houser (-0.6) and BB Washington (-0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Justin Houser, a transfer from Penn State, at -0.6. Its 80% range, -14.1 to +0.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 49% · Transfer 6% · Other newcomer 19%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3325 | Gabe Tanner | F | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Florida Gulf Coast | 15 | -1.3 | -0.5 |
| 3913 | Evan Barlow | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 13 | -1.9 | -0.6 | |
| 3934 | Justin Houser | F | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Penn State | 12 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 3943 | BB Washington | F | 6-5 | 2 | Other newcomer | 12 | -2.0 | -0.6 | |
| 3953 | Chase Konieczny | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 13 | -1.9 | -0.6 | |
| 4205 | Matt McCarthy | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Florida Gulf Coast | 10 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| 4216 | Darren Williams | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Florida Gulf Coast | 22 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| 4341 | Jack Reddick | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Florida Gulf Coast | 19 | -2.0 | -0.9 |
| 4694 | Tristen Guillouette | C | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Florida Gulf Coast | 18 | -2.5 | -1.1 |
| 4973 | George Washington III | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Florida Gulf Coast | 13 | -3.7 | -1.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  UCF #70 | -17.5 | 8% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Georgia #32 | -22.9 | 3% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Florida International #143 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Florida Atlantic #122 | -13.2 | 14% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Charlotte #131 | -5.9 | 32% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Georgia State #260 | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  New Orleans #303 | -4.6 | 36% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Pepperdine #249 | -7.0 | 29% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | at |  Loyola Marymount #170 | -10.4 | 20% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +9.8 | 79% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Tarleton State #257 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Abilene Christian #192 | +1.3 | 54% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Central Arkansas #181 | -10.3 | 20% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Little Rock #320 | -3.8 | 38% | |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  UT Arlington #211 | +1.7 | 55% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Stetson #311 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Bellarmine #305 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Lipscomb #118 | conf | -9.7 | 22% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  West Florida #304 | conf | +2.0 | 56% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Queens University #142 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Jacksonville #253 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  North Florida #321 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Stetson #311 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Lipscomb #118 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Bellarmine #305 | conf | +2.0 | 56% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Queens University #142 | conf | -8.4 | 25% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | West Florida #304 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | North Florida #321 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Jacksonville #253 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Florida Gulf Coast's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.