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Kansas
Kansas returns 29% of last season's minutes and rates #20 on offense and #5 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +14.2 to +29.1.
Why we have them here
Kansas's preseason projection of +21.7 (No. 10 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +14.9, more than the +11.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 22 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.0, less than its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.2, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 29% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Tyran Stokes (+5.9), Trey Kaufman-Renn (+5.3) and Keanu Dawes (+4.1); the newcomer who matters most is Tyran Stokes, a freshman, recruit No. 1, at +5.9. Its 80% range, +14.2 to +29.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 29% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 23% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Tyran Stokes | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 23 | +10.0 | +5.9 |
| 23 | Trey Kaufman-Renn | F | 6-9 | 4 | Transfer | Purdue | 21 | +10.1 | +5.3 |
| 91 | Keanu Dawes | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | Utah | 22 | +7.5 | +4.1 |
| 109 | Leroy Blyden Jr. | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | Toledo | 23 | +6.8 | +3.9 |
| 136 | Melvin Council Jr. | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Kansas | 27 | +5.9 | +4.0 |
| 342 | Tre White | G | 6-7 | 4 | Returning | Kansas | 21 | +4.5 | +2.3 |
| 539 | Christian Reeves | C | 7-2 | 4 | Transfer | Charleston | 12 | +4.2 | +1.3 |
| 694 | Dennis Parker Jr. | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Radford | 17 | +2.8 | +1.2 |
| 889 | Taylen Kinney | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +2.4 | +0.7 |
| 1345 | Kohl Rosario | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Kansas | 6 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| 1374 | Davion Adkins | C | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 2 | +1.3 | +0.1 |
| 1450 | Trent Perry | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1489 | Paul Mbiya | C | 7-0 | 1 | Returning | Kansas | 2 | +0.7 | +0.0 |
| 1655 | Will Thengvall | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Kansas | 2 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1756 | Atticus Richmond | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | -0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1887 | Luke Barnett | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs | +20.2 | 95% | ||
| Fri Nov 06 | vs | +20.9 | 95% | ||
| Tue Nov 10 | N | +2.4 | 58% | ||
| Tue Nov 17 | N | +14.4 | 88% | ||
| Mon Nov 23 | vs | +25.3 | 98% | ||
| Fri Nov 27 | vs | +10.5 | 80% | ||
| Tue Dec 01 | vs | +17.0 | 92% | ||
| Sun Dec 06 | N | +5.9 | 68% | ||
| Sat Dec 12 | at | -7.3 | 28% | ||
| Sat Dec 19 | N | +4.0 | 63% | ||
| Tue Dec 22 | vs | +21.1 | 96% | ||
| Tue Dec 29 | vs | +28.4 | 99% | ||
| Sat Jan 02 | vs | conf | +10.8 | 81% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at | conf | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | at | conf | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs | conf | +14.8 | 88% | |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs | conf | +13.9 | 87% | |
| Tue Jan 19 | at | conf | +2.2 | 57% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | conf | +9.3 | 77% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | conf | +16.1 | 90% | |
| Mon Feb 01 | at | conf | -5.2 | 34% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | conf | +5.9 | 68% | |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | conf | +11.8 | 83% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | conf | -4.0 | 37% | |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | conf | +10.3 | 80% | |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | conf | -6.2 | 31% | |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | conf | +3.1 | 60% | |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | conf | +17.1 | 91% | |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | conf | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
Projected margin is from Kansas's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.