Roster Math

Teams › Big 12 · Compare Utah with another team

Utah

Utah returns 14% of last season's minutes and rates #106 on offense and #41 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +1.6 to +16.2.

+8.9
Rating · #72 of 365
+3.0
Offense · #106
+5.9
Defense · #41
+1.6 to +16.2
80% range
5%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
19-13
Projected record · 14 to 24 wins
7-11
Projected in Big 12 · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Utah's preseason projection of +8.9 (No. 72 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +4.7, about the +4.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 192 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, less than its neighbours' +1.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.7. It returns 14% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Jackson Holcombe (+6.4), Trey Campbell (+4.5) and TJ Burch (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Jackson Holcombe, a transfer from Utah Valley, at +6.4. Its 80% range, +1.6 to +16.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 11% · Transfer 62% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 23%

Jackson Holcombe+6.4
Trey Campbell+4.5
TJ Burch+1.8
Taison Chatman+0.5
Malek Gomma+0.3
Grayson Gaddis-0.1
Styles Clemmons-0.3
David Katoa-0.3
Fynn Schott-0.3
Jaxon Johnson-0.3
Alec Anigbata-0.3
Babacar Faye-0.3
Lukas McCanna-0.3
Zati Loubaki-0.3
Colin McHaney-0.5
Lucas Langarita-0.7
Obomate Abbey-0.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
19Jackson HolcombeG6-72TransferUtah Valley29+8.8+6.4
110Trey CampbellG6-44TransferNorthern Iowa31+5.9+4.5
531TJ BurchG6-12TransferWright State23+3.1+1.8
1035Taison ChatmanG6-43TransferOhio State13+1.6+0.5
1338Malek GommaF6-83TransferWeber State22+0.5+0.3
2264Grayson GaddisF6-72TransferMontana State6-1.0-0.1
2773Styles ClemmonsG6-20FreshmanHigh school8-1.4-0.3
3149David KatoaG6-40Other newcomer6-1.9-0.3
3200Zati LoubakiF6-80Other newcomer7-1.9-0.3
3204Alec AnigbataF6-90Other newcomer6-2.0-0.3
3204Jaxon JohnsonF6-90Other newcomer6-2.0-0.3
3204Babacar FayeF6-95Other newcomer6-2.0-0.3
3676Fynn SchottC6-110Other newcomer4-3.1-0.3
3696Lukas McCannaC6-100Other newcomer4-3.1-0.3
4224Colin McHaneyC6-100Other newcomer7-3.1-0.5
4446Obomate AbbeyG6-01ReturningUtah13-2.5-0.8
4611Lucas LangaritaG1ReturningUtah8-3.6-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsLong Beach State #278+17.492%
Thu Nov 05vsTowson #193+13.787%
Tue Nov 10vsWeber State #233+16.190%
Sat Nov 14vsWashington #92+9.077%
Tue Nov 17vsEastern Washington #146+12.785%
Fri Nov 20NDayton #74+0.050%
Sun Nov 22NMinnesota #65-0.548%
Wed Dec 02vsCalifornia #115+11.282%
Wed Dec 09vsCalifornia Baptist #157+12.885%
Sun Dec 13vsAbilene Christian #192+14.388%
Wed Dec 16vsPortland #339+20.495%
Sat Dec 19vsSam Houston #185+14.388%
Tue Dec 22vsSouthern Utah #292+18.493%
Tue Dec 29vsAir Force #357+22.296%
Sat Jan 02atUCF #70conf-3.240%
Wed Jan 06vsKansas #10conf-4.436%
Sat Jan 09vsCincinnati #42conf+1.455%
Tue Jan 12atOklahoma State #91conf-1.645%
Sat Jan 16atBYU #23conf-11.518%
Wed Jan 20vsWest Virginia #48conf+1.956%
Tue Jan 26atArizona #3conf-15.111%
Sat Jan 30vsBaylor #37conf+1.053%
Tue Feb 02atIowa State #9conf-12.615%
Sat Feb 06vsBYU #23conf-2.143%
Wed Feb 10vsKansas State #99conf+7.272%
Sat Feb 13atHouston #8conf-13.414%
Tue Feb 16atTCU #51conf-5.832%
Sat Feb 20vsColorado #85conf+5.266%
Tue Feb 23atArizona State #52conf-5.134%
Sat Feb 27vsOklahoma State #91conf+6.169%
Tue Mar 02vsTexas Tech #15conf-3.140%
Sat Mar 06atColorado #85conf-3.040%

Projected margin is from Utah's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.