Roster Math

Teams › MAC · Compare Massachusetts with another team

Massachusetts

Massachusetts returns 73% of last season's minutes and rates #204 on offense and #154 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.9 to +6.6.

-0.6
Rating · #178 of 365
-1.1
Offense · #204
+0.5
Defense · #154
-7.9 to +6.6
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-15
Projected record · 10 to 22 wins
11-11
Projected in MAC · 6 to 16 wins

Why we have them here

Massachusetts's preseason projection of -0.6 (No. 178 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.3, less than the -0.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 183 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 73% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Jordan Clayton (+1.4), Jayden Ndjigue (+1.2) and Danny Carbuccia (+1.1); the newcomer who matters most is Jordan Clayton, a transfer from Northwestern, at +1.4. Its 80% range, -7.9 to +6.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 64% · Transfer 27% · Other newcomer 9%

Jordan Clayton+1.4
Jayden Ndjigue+1.2
Danny Carbuccia+1.1
Abdullah Ahmed-0.1
Josh Engel-0.3
Isaiah Placide-0.3
Bilal Osman-0.4
Charles Outlaw-0.5
Junjie Wang-0.5
Dimitri Clerc-0.5
Rollie Castineyra-0.6
Luka Damjanac-0.6
Donovan Brown-0.8
Dwayne Wimbley Jr.-1.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
648Jordan ClaytonG6-23TransferNorthwestern20+2.8+1.4
796Jayden NdjigueG6-43ReturningMassachusetts26+1.9+1.2
868Danny CarbucciaG5-111ReturningMassachusetts25+1.7+1.1
1759Abdullah AhmedC6-101TransferBYU14-0.1-0.1
2737Isaiah PlacideG6-41ReturningMassachusetts13-1.0-0.3
2893Josh EngelF6-00Other newcomer9-1.4-0.3
2927Junjie WangF6-93TransferSan Francisco19-1.0-0.5
3468Bilal OsmanF6-70Other newcomer9-1.8-0.4
3528Dimitri ClercF6-101ReturningMassachusetts12-1.6-0.5
3779Charles OutlawF6-91ReturningMassachusetts8-2.2-0.5
3960Luka DamjanacF6-102ReturningMassachusetts13-1.9-0.6
4361Rollie CastineyraG6-23ReturningMassachusetts8-3.1-0.6
4638Donovan BrownG6-22ReturningMassachusetts9-3.5-0.8
5183Dwayne Wimbley Jr.F6-61ReturningMassachusetts14-5.3-1.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atTroy #155-7.328%
Fri Nov 06NBoston College #114-2.941%
Wed Nov 11vsUMass Lowell #287+9.878%
Tue Nov 17vsBryant #327+11.482%
Sat Nov 21vsMaine #318+11.081%
Wed Nov 25atNortheastern #296-0.848%
Sun Nov 29vsLoyola Chicago #166+5.367%
Wed Dec 02atEastern Michigan #244conf+0.150%
Sun Dec 06NWake Forest #76-6.530%
Wed Dec 09vsWestern Michigan #151conf+1.655%
Sat Dec 12atKent State #133conf-3.938%
Sat Dec 19vsStonehill #354+14.688%
Tue Dec 29vsAkron #73conf-4.337%
Sat Jan 02vsBall State #153conf+1.655%
Tue Jan 05atBuffalo #209conf+0.451%
Sat Jan 09atOhio #232conf-1.545%
Tue Jan 12vsToledo #173conf+2.458%
Sat Jan 16vsCentral Michigan #259conf+5.567%
Tue Jan 19atBowling Green #266conf+0.351%
Sat Jan 23vsOhio #232conf+4.765%
Tue Jan 26vsMiami (OH) #96conf-2.243%
Sat Jan 30atAkron #73conf-10.221%
Tue Feb 02atCentral Michigan #259conf-0.549%
Tue Feb 09vsKent State #133conf+0.752%
Sat Feb 13vsEastern Michigan #244conf+4.865%
Tue Feb 16atBall State #153conf-3.040%
Sat Feb 20atWestern Michigan #151conf-3.340%
Tue Feb 23vsBuffalo #209conf+3.661%
Sat Feb 27vsBowling Green #266conf+5.968%
Tue Mar 02atToledo #173conf-2.243%
Fri Mar 05atMiami (OH) #96conf-8.226%

Projected margin is from Massachusetts's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.