Roster Math

Teams › WCC · Compare Loyola Marymount with another team

Loyola Marymount

Loyola Marymount returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #171 on offense and #197 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.6 to +7.2.

-0.2
Rating · #170 of 365
-0.1
Offense · #171
-0.2
Defense · #197
-7.6 to +7.2
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-15
Projected record · 10 to 22 wins
9-8
Projected in WCC · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Loyola Marymount's preseason projection of -0.2 (No. 170 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.7, more than the -0.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 188 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, less than its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Zion Sensley (+2.9), Aaron McBride (+1.1) and All Wright (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Zion Sensley, a transfer from UC Santa Barbara, at +2.9. Its 80% range, -7.6 to +7.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 37% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 4%

Zion Sensley+2.9
Aaron McBride+1.1
All Wright+0.4
AJ Thomas-0.1
Mazi Mosley-0.1
Christian Humphrey-Rembert-0.2
Nakyel Shelton-0.2
Zamir Paschal-0.2
Jasai Miles-0.2
Cooper Smith-0.3
Marley Zeller-0.4
George Tupy-0.4
Kevin Carney-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
246Zion SensleyG6-82TransferUC Santa Barbara25+4.8+2.9
820Aaron McBrideF6-63ReturningLoyola Marymount24+1.9+1.1
1240All WrightG6-32TransferXavier22+0.7+0.4
1851AJ ThomasG6-41ReturningLoyola Marymount16-0.2-0.1
1941Christian Humphrey-RembertF1TransferLafayette26-0.3-0.2
1979Mazi MosleyG6-51TransferLSU10-0.5-0.1
2228Nakyel SheltonG6-33ReturningLoyola Marymount12-0.6-0.2
2316Zamir PaschalG6-10FreshmanHigh school12-0.7-0.2
2344Jasai MilesG6-63TransferIndiana12-0.8-0.2
3261Cooper SmithG6-21ReturningLoyola Marymount7-1.9-0.3
3322Marley ZellerF6-50Other newcomer9-1.7-0.4
3645George TupyF6-63ReturningLoyola Marymount7-2.2-0.4
3918Kevin CarneyG5-113ReturningLoyola Marymount8-2.4-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Wed Nov 04vsQueens University #142+4.865%
Tue Nov 10atTroy #155-6.829%
Thu Nov 12NSouth Alabama #228+1.756%
Sun Nov 15vsChicago State #337+12.184%
Sat Nov 21NCalifornia Baptist #157-0.648%
Sun Nov 22NUC Irvine #105-3.240%
Wed Nov 25vsEastern Washington #146+4.966%
Sat Nov 28atUC San Diego #77-10.819%
Fri Dec 04vsHawai'i #179+6.370%
Mon Dec 07vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299+10.480%
Wed Dec 09atNevada #66-12.915%
Sun Dec 13NMcNeese #80-5.632%
Sat Dec 19vsCal State Bakersfield #328+12.183%
Tue Dec 22vsWyoming #121+3.762%
Tue Dec 29vsPepperdine #249conf+5.367%
Sat Jan 02atSeattle U #111conf-5.732%
Wed Jan 06vsSan Diego #263conf+6.068%
Sat Jan 09atPepperdine #249conf+0.652%
Tue Jan 12vsPacific #175conf+2.859%
Sat Jan 16vsSanta Clara #63conf-4.336%
Tue Jan 19atSan Francisco #189conf-1.745%
Sat Jan 23atSaint Mary's #60conf-10.320%
Wed Jan 27vsSeattle U #111conf+0.050%
Sat Jan 30vsDenver #240conf+5.166%
Sat Feb 06atPortland #339conf+4.063%
Wed Feb 10atSan Diego #263conf+1.254%
Sat Feb 13vsSaint Mary's #60conf-4.336%
Wed Feb 17vsSan Francisco #189conf+3.360%
Sat Feb 20atSanta Clara #63conf-10.121%
Wed Feb 24atDenver #240conf+0.852%
Sat Feb 27vsPortland #339conf+9.578%

Projected margin is from Loyola Marymount's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.