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UT Arlington
UT Arlington returns 76% of last season's minutes and rates #293 on offense and #117 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.3 to +5.3.
Why we have them here
UT Arlington's preseason projection of -2.0 (No. 211 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.3, more than the -1.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 142 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.0. It returns 76% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Raysean Seamster (+3.1), Bahsil Laster (+1.5) and Cameron Jackson (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Augustine Youssef, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -9.3 to +5.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 67% · Transfer 9% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247 | Raysean Seamster | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | UT Arlington | 29 | +4.4 | +3.1 |
| 644 | Bahsil Laster | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | UT Arlington | 23 | +2.7 | +1.5 |
| 1594 | Cameron Jackson | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | UT Arlington | 21 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2352 | Jayden Smoot | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | UT Arlington | 17 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 2666 | Augustine Youssef | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.2 | -0.3 | |
| 2695 | Niko Bundalo | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Ole Miss | 9 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| 3160 | Stoney Hadnot | F | 6-6 | 2 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3306 | Alex Bossinakis | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | UT Arlington | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| 3422 | Bryson McGlothin | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Richmond | 9 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| 4699 | Miles Goodman | F | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | UT Arlington | 16 | -2.7 | -1.1 |
| 4843 | Marcus Rigsby Jr. | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | UT Arlington | 19 | -2.8 | -1.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | N |  Portland #339 | +5.3 | 66% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  Hawai'i #179 | -6.5 | 30% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | +4.8 | 65% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Southern Miss #214 | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Northwestern State #277 | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | +10.0 | 79% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Colorado State #67 | -13.0 | 14% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | -6.4 | 30% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  Arkansas #25 | -20.6 | 5% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  North Florida #321 | +10.2 | 80% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Jacksonville #253 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Stetson #311 | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | -1.7 | 45% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Central Arkansas #181 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Austin Peay #163 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Abilene Christian #192 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  West Georgia #295 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  North Alabama #332 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | conf | +6.7 | 71% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Abilene Christian #192 | conf | +2.0 | 56% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Eastern Kentucky #264 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Austin Peay #163 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Tarleton State #257 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | West Georgia #295 | conf | +5.6 | 67% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | North Alabama #332 | conf | +7.0 | 72% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Little Rock #320 | conf | +2.3 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Tarleton State #257 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | Central Arkansas #181 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Eastern Kentucky #264 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
Projected margin is from UT Arlington's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.